5G
Unlocking technical barriers to digital transformation
5G Manufacturing Forum was held today virtually. For factories of all sizes, digital transformation remains a conundrum. Manufacturers are facing a new stakeholder ecosystem where vendors’ solutions can be perceived as futuristic by the end-users. Rip-and-replace isn’t an option, but integrating a legacy system into a new network with new technologies isn’t straightforward either. New processes, technologies, costs, and people are to be considered.
There was a panel discussion around unlocking the technical barriers to digital transformation. Suresh Daniel, Data and Architecture Integration Director, Coats Plc, said that we are getting into digital transformation. It is underpinned by technology. We have brought in change management and data. Data is a difficult thing to track. We need to have good data transformation. Change and data are needed to make digital transformation possible.
Ted Rozier, Director of Engineering, Festo, noted that we can look at Industry 3.0 and 4.0, and we see major differences. Industry 3.0 was all about islands of automation. It doesn’t allow you to put a true data strategy. We now need smart maintenance, where we can have predictions. That’s where this Industry 4.0 comes in! It is now a cyber-physical system!
We now have the ability to capture the information, and put in the right tools. We can change that based on customer demand. It is affecting the machinery, and allowing humans and machines to work closer. We now need to have good connectivity, traceability, etc. Machinery has become lot smarter.
Adam Cohen, Director of IoT Channel and Business Development, KORE Wireless, said technology changes every 18 months. Systems and processes helped create urgency. Smart manufacturing has come into the fore. We can now have real-time data that has helped shift the industry. Predictive maintenance and modelling have helped in business monitoring. Industry 4.0 is an amazing route to pursue. We can now be more efficient.
Bhupesh Agrawal, Director, Private Networks & Edge Computing, Networks & Edge Group, Intel, noted that we are also looking at TCO. Use cases for Industry 4.0 have to be aligned with TCO and RoI. Mobile robots can be costly. We have to look at process automation and sensors. We have to see whether AR/VR apps are actually ready. We have to check whether an enterprise is now cellular ready. We have to look at use cases and determine what is ready. All of this will take some time.
Ted Rozier, Festo, added that we have digital transformation journey and its maturity. We have to look at the maturity index realistically. Adam Cohen, KORE Wireless, added there is no love lost between OT and IT. 5G has emerged as a matchmaker. OT and IT can play together now.
How can we ensure complete integration at legacy systems? Suresh Daniel, Coats, said lot of organizations are still struggling. Edge devices have to be there and you need to make decisions close to them. We have to build a good plumbing building and good pipelines. You have to make legacy systems as real-time as possible, so the pipeline can keep moving.
Employees are critical to digital transformation. Ted Rozier, Festo, said they are recognized as the grandfather of mechatronics. There is need for the individuals coming out of education into the workforce to look at data models, and search for information. Automation engineers need to see the big picture. Manufacturing system touches everyone — from CEO to operator. We also have skills gap within the workforce. Organizations need to document the ‘aha’ moments, and bring it to the education segment. They can get some certification around those topics. We have to invest in more content to bring everyone up-to-date.
Adam Cohen, KORE Wireless, noted that we do have aging workplaces. We have enterprise asset management (EAM). There are EAM companies around. There is need to keep machines working. Asset performance management (APM) is equally important. We now need to try and make the machines go one better, and schedule them faster. If you save one minute, you are the hero! OT has brought about a huge change.
Agrawal, Intel, noted that there are many use cases. He had five use cases. One, predictive maintenance that is earliest to catch. Next, AR/VR for training employees. Third, location services of assets. Fourth, finding dead spots and solving them. Finally, security and surveillance. Daniel, Coats, said we need to see where are the returns coming from. Rozier, Festo, added that we need to pool information for educators. Agarwal agreed that we need to look at Industry 4.0 and map them to building blocks you want to achieve. Drive proof-of-value, before making a decision. Private 5G is just an enabler.
Ms. Catherine Sbeglia Nin, Managing Editor, RCR Wireless News, was the moderator.
New era of connectivity driving digital transformation: GSA
Global Semiconductor Alliance (GSA), USA today held a conference on the new era of connectivity driving digital transformation.
Stefan Majid, Global Lead for Supply Chain and Industry Market Analytics, GfK, and
Tsungyen Lee, Greater China Lead for Supply Chain and Industry Market Analytics, GfK, presented the connectivity market and industry overview, mastering present and future demand in a 5G-powered world.
5G-powered world
There is slowdown of growth in smartphones during 2022. However, India will see positive growth in 2022 and 2023. Smartphone mix continues to grow in the region, helping boost smartphone demand. Consumers are migrating from feature phones to smartphones. We are also seeing that demand was barely affected during the third wave of outbreak in 2022.
China is struggling through the re-emergence of Covid-19. Smartphone demand in 2022 has been hit by localized lockdowns related to Covid-19. 2023 is likely to see another year-on-year decline, dragged by lengthening replacement cycle. Smartphone demand dropped by 3 percent year-on-year in 2021. In 2024-25, China smartphone market will be more developed like USA and Europe.
Moderate year-on-year growth is expected in 2023 for North America, Western Europe, ME and Africa, Central and Eastern Europe, Latin America, and developing Asia. Slight recovery is expected in 2023 with less impact from Covid-19, as well as stabilizing global economy forecast to boost smartphone demand.
Global 5G forecast remains moderately positive. 5G penetration reached 44 percent for global in May 22. It will achieve 49 percent and 56 percent in 2022 and 2023, respectively. The strength will also come primarily to China. 5G had led to increase in smartphone demand. Mature markets such as North America and Western Europe, are driven by replacement demand.
Growth remains strong year-on-year for smart wearables. Apple has been playing the role of a growth driver for the past few years. Smart watches, smart bracelets, and others, are all expected to grow up to 2023. Smart bracelets will see a slight drop, and smart watches will see slight rise in 2022. There is still lot of room for growth. Global headphone demand will ramp steadily year-on-year. TWS contributed to the growth momentum, while regular headphone remained stagnant since 2020.
Importance of hardware cyber security
Ilia Stolov, Technology Executive, Secure Solutions, Winbond Electronics Corp., presented the opening keynote on the importance of hardware cyber security for the new era of connectivity.
There are increasing security concerns for 5G IoT devices. Global endpoint security market should reach $26.3 billion by 2026. Currently, only 4 percent of deployed connected IoT products have security. Non-secure IoT and automotive devices increase chances of successful ransomware attacks.
Government security regulations have major impacts in system integrators to implement hardware security functions. Several other security standards and regulations are in the pipeline, including 5G Cybersecurity Toolbox, and Cyber Resilience Act.
The European Commission’s Radio Equipment Directive 2014/53/EU (Red) establishes a regulatory framework for radio equipment. Device manufacturers must comply with Red directives. Security certification will also be required by Government and industrial regulations.
New approaches are now on to secure 5G IoT ecosystem. Every component needs to be protected. Every IoT device must be secured and authorized. Focus is on hardware security for connected IoT devices. Also, memory device becomes the active security component for complement MCU for platform assets protection.
Hardware root of trust (RoTs) are now needed over software RoTs. The integration of hardware RoT will serve as the trusted secure foundation of cryptographic operations. NVM is the foundation for RoT. It is a key component at the heart of every system design. Secure storage needs to be reliable, acceptable, etc. It should alert if any outdated data is found.
GlobalPlatform publised the SESIP profile for secure external memories (GPT_SPE_148). Eurosmart published Secure Sub-system Protection Profile (PP0117) to address integration of security into SoC devices. Winbond presented the secure flash solutions.
Silent enablers of connectivity
Peter Hsieh, Greater China Sales Director, Bosch Sensortec GmbH, presented the second keynote on smart algorithms, embedded AI and MEMS sensors – the silent enablers of connectivity.
Smart algorithms, embedded AI and MEMS sensors are enablers of 5G connectivity. Bosch MEMS sensors are improving everyday life. They are enablers of IoT. There are motion, environmental, smart sensor systems, respectively, available from Bosch Sensortec.
Today, we are in the second sensor wave of evaluate, driven by mobile phones. The third stage will be learn, driven by emerging IoT ecosystems. Edge AI is Internet of challenging things. We look at data traffic, real-time decision making, data privacy and personalization, autonomy, etc. Security starts at point of origin. Edge AI is inside the MEMS sensor system.
Bosch enables intelligent wearables and hearables. These include personalized gestures, context detection, and fitness and health tracking. It is also offering environmental sensors. Bosch is bridging the gap between sensor data and users’ needs. AI and learning inside the sensor improves sports and fitness apps, with self-learning AI sensor. An example is Bosch BHI260AP AI sensor. Another is BME688 that enables environmental sensing. Bosch sensing solutions are the enablers for consumer electronics and IoT apps.
Panel discussion
This was followed by a panel discussion with Kristian Sæther, Product Director, Cellular IoT Product Management, Nordic Semiconductor, Ilia Stolov, Peter Hsieh, and Tsungyen Lee. Stefan Majid was the moderator.
WFH has now driven up demand. How much more can that be expected? Kristian Sæther, Nordic Semiconductor, said that some mega trends have been accelerated. People demand more flexibility in their work life. We are building a more sustainable and productive world. We are going to have more devices that are remotely controlled and managed. We will also see reduction in working age people. We have to drive productivity for the next decade.
Ilia Stolov, Winbond, added that WFH provides better balance. Demand for electronic devices has increased. Demand will recover in long term.
Peter Hsieh, Bosch, noted WFH has seen increase in demand for electronic devices. In the long run, demand for intelligent functions will be sustainable. Consumers will have higher requirements for products. There will be smarter and intelligent apps.
Next, how will the smartphone market look? Tsungyen Lee, GfK, said smartphone demand was shrinking in most developed regions in 2017-18. In 2021, we saw slight rebound in demand. This year will be another one of decline. In 2023, we are expecting some growth in the smartphone market.
Peter Hsieh, Bosch, said in 2021, demand increased quite a lot. This year, due to situations, we are seeing reduction in demand. It will take some time to recover in 2022, and early 2023. Further growth will need some requirements, such as new apps.
What are the main drivers for 5G growth? Peter Hsieh, Bosch, said 5G sees faster Internet speeds. We need specific apps. Major drivers are to have more intelligent apps, such as smart industry, AR/VR, etc. More smarter solutions will be required.
Tsungyen Lee, GfK, said some regions will have trouble in telling the difference between 4G and 5G. For 5G, there was lack of alternative options initially. There are apps that make 5G mainstream. We need more of strategy, rather than technology. We need to have use cases as the relevant factor.
Ilia Stolov, Winbond, said we also need to look at cyber security for 5G growth. Software is definitely more vulnerable for attacks. Governments are now regulating 5G cyber security toolsets. 5G and IoT players can introduce new security solutions.
Kristian Sæther, Nordic Semiconductor, said 5G brings lot of interest. From devices side, we will need use cases for massive IoT, low latency, etc. App security needs to be taken care of. An example is Transport Layer Security (TLS) that is not really suitable for 5G devices. We have a great opportunity to build new cyber security solutions for 5G. We need to keep in mind the use cases as well. We see lot of device makers build new solutions. We must work to accelerate long-term benefits of 5G.
How semiconductors will enable 5G?
Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), USA, held a panel discussion today around how semiconductors will enable 5G, a driver of US economic growth.
The participants were Jefferson Wang, Global 5G Lead, Accenture Strategy, David Robertson, Fellow, Senior Technology Director, Automotive, Communications, and Aerospace Group, Analog Devices, and Charles Schroeder, Fellow, NI. Falan Yinug, Director, Industry Statistics and Economic Policy, SIA, was the moderator.
Economic impact of 5G
Talking about the economic impact of 5G, Jefferson Wang, Accenture Strategy, said there could be about $2.7 trillion in additional US gross output between 2021-2025. 5G can add up to $1.5 trillion to the US GDP. He showcased a 5G economic report. 5G’s economic impact will be felt across the USA and Europe. There will be newer jobs created. Eg., across manufacturing, there can be 20-30 percent productivity gains. Healthcare can see 30 percent cost savings in transition to remote-home-based models. In automotive, there can be up to 80 percent reduction in vehicle collisions. There could be up to 50 percent sales growth when combined streaming and XR happen in retail. There can be potential 25 percent increased productivity across agriculture.
There can be factory floor automation, intelligent asset management, etc. Virtual health, remote patient monitoring, etc., in healthcare, intelligent grid mode and smart power plants across utilities, XR shopping, autonomous vehicles, smart tractors, pest and weed eradication using drones, etc., are just some estimated 5G use cases.
Connectivity is a fundamental expectation and essential. US consumers are also realizing the digital divide. They are willing to pay for potential added benefits or new services. However, 5G has an image problem. It requires more conditioning of the market. We need to educate the consumers more. As we democratize, we need to share the lessons learned, and accelerate the process.
As for role of NI in 5G test challenges, Charles Schroeder, NI, added that there are three use cases: enhanced mobile broadband, URLLC, and massive machine type communications. The wireless industry changes quite fast. NI systems were critical to 5G research. 5G is constantly evolving as a standard. As we look toward 6G, we are trying to figure it out. Enabling technologies could be extreme MIMO, joint communication and sensing, spectrum efficiency and sharing, and AI/ML. 5G and 6G are a pair, connecting people and machines to a huge ecosystem. 5G is still very infant.
Role of semiconductors
So, how are semiconductors enabling 5G? David Robertson, Analog Devices, said ADI is in industrial communications, automotive, aero and defense, healthcare, consumer, etc. There are high-performance semiconductors for the edge. The infrastructure radio (O-RU) challenge is met by performance that enables new architecture. There are greater bandwidths, higher bands, more antennae, etc. Radios are being built on common platform hardware and software silicon solutions. There are more O-RU form factors. It is an evolving ecosystem. There are small and macro cells, as well as massive MIMO.
As for the anatomy of a base station radio, it is all about chips. The different jobs require different technologies. You end up with a microcosm of the semiconductor industry. It is also enabling the various semiconductor companies to push the technology. There is also talk about how green is 5G? Lot of efficiencies are going in. About half a dozen to a dozen semiconductor companies are a part of a complete radio unit.
Wang added that as for a commercial app for 5G, or its application across industry segments, they are currently fragmented. Even with autonomous driving, some people are not feeling confident about going on to L4 stage. We also need to see the horizontal technologies that can help in the uptake. Right now, video and analytics can take advantage of the network. It can solve some problems. Robertson noted that 5G is an enabler of automation across the various industries. We need to make that work in a safe, secure manner. What will it take to make that happen? 5G could be the solution.
How will 5G satisfy the quintet?
5G Virtual Expo was held recently. There was a panel discussion on unlocking the potential of 5G. The participants were: Håkon Lønsethagen, Telenor, Research, and 5G Infrastructure Association (IA) member of the Board (EU 5G PPP), Edwin Bussem, Developer Next Generation Infrastructure, KPN, and Ms. Friederike Hoffmann, EVP, Head of Connected Business Solutions, Swisscom. Ms. Julie Snell, Chair, The Scotland 5G Centre, was the moderator.
How are we going to integrate the 5G network into the existing network? Edwin Bussem, KPN, said we are on the verge of being able to provide service levels on wireless connectivity, and there can be a wait-and-see situation with customers. There is a waiting game going on to see who goes first.
Ms. Friederike Hoffmann, Swisscom, added that their issues have not been about integrating with the existing infrastructure. However, some of our antennae have been demolished in Switzerland. Can you imagine that? We are installing a mobile 5G network. We are also working on automated vehicles. The private customer mind is very careful and hesitant in Switzerland. We can’t build the entire network as fast as we want to. We can’t make the networks strong, as needed to be, to fully test the use cases that we need, and to onboard more enterprise customers.
Ms. Julie Snell agreed that people are attacking networks that are not necessarily 5G. There seems to be a real concern that it is not safe enough.
Håkon Lønsethagen, Telenor, noted that in Norway, there have not been that many cases, compared to the UK and Switzerland. We are aware of these things and how we communicate carefully to the public. We are doing this is in a very well-thought way. We are installing and providing services in a secure way. It is also a matter for enterprises and verticals to step up and do testing, along with the operators. They also need to understand the pain points they would like to solve. We are trying to create methodologies to interact with the enterprise vertical customers.
Ms. Snell said there is a trial-and-error method on the move towards establishing standards. Ofcom, UK, released a report that calmed down the situation. Bussem, KPN, said we are trying to project what are the societal benefits that we are going to bring. The public are willing to give it a chance.
Satisfying 5G quintet
Next, there was a point raised about how will 5G satisfy the quintet of trusty, reliability, latency, and bandwidth efficiency.
Håkon Lønsethagen, Telenor, said that they have been able to define some new mechanisms with 5G. Eg., radio channel coding and how we use the spectrum. If you want to aim for high capacity, you typically introduce some buffering and channel coding. That may sacrifice some latency performance. So, there will always be this trade-off. You can probably deploy in private networks with industry use cases. It also enhances mobile broadband. You can also combine this with edge computing. There is 5G and network slicing. It allows you to allocate resources to the demand that you have. You can start optimizing across the whole 5G system. You can also build purpose-built logical networks. Eventually, you can think of green ICT.
Edwin Bussem, KPN, added that there are technology-related benefits with 5G coming into play. It is about optimizing per use case, and per field of interest. We need to provide societal benefits. We are being very careful in what we are promising the market. That’s the sort of prudence you need to take when you consider the quintet.
Ms. Friederike Hoffmann, Swisscom, noted that they have the opportunities to manage the quintet way better than before. Companies don’t stop at national borders. You have production facilities all over the world. We also need standards, and to learn from each other. We usually do this in telco networks and classical partnerships. We need to make sure that when trains are self-driven, they also do not stop at borders. We can do this, and are working on it. There are also gaming opportunities. We can manage resources way better than before, and be more energy efficient. We are going to need close-knit partnerships and ecosystems that are just evolving.
Håkon Lønsethagen, Telenor, said they are migrating to inter-border capability. We are seeing advanced use cases. We still need some time. We need to step up as a community. With 5G, there are use cases that are quite demanding. We also need to develop inter-provider-based services and capabilities.
Ms. Julie Snell said that there is more of a shift toward private networks, eg., in campuses. We need to integrate these private networks to be part of a global network. MNOs are also providing new products and pricing.
Ms. Friederike Hoffmann, Swisscom, said that it is creating a challenge. We did a terrible job at monetizing 4G. When networks are full, we do need the capacity. Do we need more products and pricing? Of course, we do! It also depends on the market segment. There are qualities of service levels that are now possible, that were unseen on 4G. Customers understand there is a big value for them in 5G. They are also making efficiency gains. The use cases of 5G need to be very clear. Customers are also weighing their options carefully, before investing.
Håkon Lønsethagen, Telenor, said there is so much to do in 5G. There are solutions today, and more will happen within the next three years. There will also be society- and citizen-critical services. The application level cannot really express their intent to the network today. We have to work on this. We need to reach the optimization challenges ahead of us.
Edwin Bussem, KPN, agreed, adding that we need to look at what are we handling. You have to treat situations differently, and also have to prepare yourself as an organization. You also have to re-organize your own internal operations. You can charge some price. This is all new to us. We are going to build pricing models on a firm-by-firm basis. We have to take the potential use cases.
5G evolution and 6G
At the ongoing 2020 Symposia on VLSI Technology and Circuits, Takehiro Nakamura, Senior VP, and GM of 5G Laboratories, NTT Docomo Inc., presented on 5G evolution and 6G.
He said the evolution of mobile communications system has been happening every 10 years. There is evolution for higher data rate and higher capacity. In Japan, 5G pre-service was launched on Sept. 20, 2019 taking the opportunity of Rugby World Cup 2019. The 5G commercial service was launched on 25 March, 2020. 1 trillion Japanese Yen (app. 10 billion US $) will be invested for 5G commercial deployment in 2019-2023.
For 5G spectrum deployment, new frequency bands, 3.7 GHz, 4.5 GHz and 28 GHz, were allocated in April 2019 in Japan. They will be deployed for 5G on a case-by-case basis. This will take into account the frequency bandwidth, propagation characteristics, co-existence conditions, etc.
There will be continuous technological innovation and value creation by mobile communications. Technology evolution, as mentioned earlier, happens every 10 years. Observations from 5G real issues are that, the first generation is using mmW. There are high interests from industries. Key technical issues are mmW coverage / mobility improvement, uplink performance enhancement, and high requirements
for industry use cases.
There is cyber-physical fusion for 5G evolution. There is ‘forecast the future’ and discover ‘new knowledge’. We need to turn humans, things and events into information, acquire / accumulate data (replication of the physical space / digital twin. We also need to forecast the future / discover knowledge and data analysis to turn data into value). We also need to actuate (feedback of value to the physical world).
Future world view for 6G
We should look at solving social problems — telework, remote control, telemedicine, distance education, autonomous operation of various equipment, including cars. We need to improve communication between the humans and things — wearable devices, including XR (VR, AR, MR) devices, high definition images and holograms exceeding 8K, new five sense communications, including tactile sense.
We need to also expand the of communication environment, including high-rise buildings, drones, flying cars, airplanes, space business. We need the sophistication of cyber-physical fusion, with large amount of information between cyberspace and physical space without delay, and tighter co-operation between both spaces.
6G is must to identify the new generation. There should be big gain in performance. There is no single representative technology since around 4G. Also, 6G will be a combination of new technologies and enhancements to bring ‘big gain’.
There are a variety of technical components for 5GE and 6G. These are new network deployments (overlapped/dynamic topology, positioning/sensing capabilities, function split / interface enhancement, etc. There will be non-terrestrial networks (HAPS, drone, ship, etc.). There must be frequency extension / controls. There will also be new radio access technologies (waveform/access-schemes exploiting new frequency and coverage, xDD, assisted by AI).
There should also be further enhanced mMIMO (distributed mMIMO, new MIMO schemes, UE/NW co-operation, uplink coverage), enhanced URLLC / non-public network. There is need to have AI for everywhere in the mobile network (including the integration of non-cellular technologies).
New network deployments should make the best way from multiple propagation paths. These include distributed MIMO, IAB, repeater/reflector, new FH/BH topologies, uplink only node, device co-operation, etc. A technical study considering new-type deployments will be needed.
There will be coverage optimization with metamaterial / metasurface. This is an arbitrary refractive index realized by designing the structure and arrangement of meta-atom. Metamaterial reflector will be required for making mmW coverage.
Future RAT concept will be exploiting new frequency and coverage. Power efficient transmission will be important part of future RAT. There will be further advancement of radio technologies. These include:
- Massive MIMO enhancement
– More antenna elements, more layers for spatial multiplexing
– Distributed antenna arrangement combined with new network deployments - FTN (faster-than-Nyquist) transmission technology
– Single carrier enhancement – higher spectrum efficiency keeping low PAPR
– Virtual massive (VM)-MIMO.
Industrial private 5G network
This will have huge uses. There are high-performance requirements for industrial use cases. It will:
- Guarantee high data rate (even when connectivity is provided simultaneously to massive number of devices, or when there is excessive uplink traffic).
- High reliability to maintain service quality
- Low end-to-end latency
- Easy deployment of temporary network for events, construction sites, etc.
Private 5G network is a promising solution that can address the above-mentioned requirements. “Local 5G”, lead by MIC, is drawing attention in Japan. Utilization of public 5G network infrastructure is provided by MNOs. This can also be used for private network use cases. Studies on this issue are required. There are trial activities for smart factory going on. Eg., Fanuc, Hitachi, Omron, etc.
If we look at the coverage extension, including NTN, HAPS can support more business use cases with benefits such as higher data rate, lower latency, smaller terminals, and flexibility of network deployments. HAPS has a variety of use cases. It is a desired unified solution for wide range of requirements. There will also be AI for everywhere, with AI/ML getting integrated into ‘everywhere’ in the future RAN.
There will be the integration of non-cellular technologies into 5G evolution and 6G system. Broadcast / satellite systems, e.g., for multi-cast service, emergency backhaul, etc. There will be secondary use of spectrum and unlicensed spectrum use based on inter-RAT co-ordination.
There will also be the integration of non-wireless communication technologies into 5G evolution and 6G system, such as sensor/camera information for AI/ML for better radio access control, etc., and wireless charging / energy harvesting. There will be larger-scale ecosystem supporting wider range of use cases.
In conclusion, 5G commercial service was launched in many countries. Study on 5G evolution and 6G have started globally. Much higher performance than 5G will be required for 5G evolution and 6G in terms of data rate, capacity, coverage, latency, cost, energy efficiency, reliability, etc.
Many potential technologies are identified, e.g., new network topologies, non-terrestrial network, >100 GHz frequency, etc. To provide excellent end-to-end services for variety of use cases and applications in 2030s, further evolution of VLSI will be required, as well as 5G evolution and 6G.
Evolution of and future trends in semiconductors and electronics
The National Program on Technology Enhanced Learning (NPTEL)-IIT Madras has launched a Special Lecture Series online for the benefit of students affected by the nation-wide lockdown to prevent the spread of Covid-19.
Jaswinder S. Ahuja, Corporate VP and India MD, Cadence Design Systems India Pvt Ltd, presented on the evolution of and future trends in semiconductors and electronics.
Cadence Design Systems is in the EDA and IP business for chips, packages and bolts. It has over 1,500 patents as a company. IP has nothing to do with patents. Moore’s Law is driving the industry. It has been driving the semiconductor and EDA roadmap for the last 50 years. The cost of implementing any functionality in silicon halves every two years. In reality, it is doubling in every 18 months. A multi-million dollar military flight simulators of the 1980s are sold for $250 today.
If we talk about the semiconductor processes, it used to be measured in microns. Now, it is measured in nm. The current leading edge is 7nm. The next will be 5nm, 3nm, 1.5nm, and then, nobody knows. Semiconductor scaling may end in some point of time. The economics are the key driver to advanced process technologies.
Trends driving semicon
Let us now look at the global trends driving semiconductors. The most profound trend is data. There is the IoT, data centers, servers, in-memory and Big Data, HDDs, DRAM and NAND, as well as the wireless and the wired infrastructures. There is data creation, processing, transmission and storage. There could be over 50 billion IoT devices by 2025. It can also be a trillion! For every living person on this planet, there will be at least seven to eight IoT devices generating streams of data. A lot of different applications and devices are coming up! Its creating momentum as well behind AI/ML. We are creating a virtual cycle of data.
Industrial, automotive and mobile will be driving edge computing. There is the Industry 4.0 as well. You have autonomous vehicles moving around, and a lot of technologies that you can experiment with. The large quantities of data being generated is also driving 5G and antennae. There are huge investments being made in the cloud and datacenters as well. A lot of decision making are also becoming very timing sensitive. Example, if a car gets a signal regarding an obstacle, you have to make a decision in milliseconds.
Some of the other key industry trends include, 5G, automotive, Industry 4.0 driven by ML, AI/OT, and cloud and data centers. These are driving the growth around electronics and semiconductors. With the advent of ML, and the need to process specific streams of data, there are a large number of startups coming up with normal architectures targeted to meet these challenges. Example, there are about 150 startups doing unique process architectures for different kinds of apps.
Moore’s Law is alive and well. It was earlier driven by lithography, novel architectures, device architectures, FinFETs, etc. In the future, it will be the co-optimization of the design and the underlying process technologies. Even further ahead, it will be co-optimization of system and the underlying technologies. There will be heterogeneous system integration.
More than Moore is also scaling over the last 5-10 years. If the digital portion of the chip can benefit from the scaling, and this can be done at 7nm or 5nm, and the analog chip is at 28nm, we can put some MEMS and sensors into a single package and create all kinds of new and interesting apps. Lab-on-chip is an example.
Focus on pervasive intelligence
Pervasive intelligence is a key driver for the industry. It is about autonomous vehicles and systems, intelligent edge and cloud compute, and intelligent networks and mobile devices. You can have autonomous cars, trucks, mining equipment, drones, robots, and personal assistants, etc. These can do predictive maintenance, embedded electronics, video surveillance, medical diagnostics coupled with AR, consumer data analytics, and provide business intelligence. These tasks can be performed over 5G self-organizing networks (SONs), smartphones, industrial Internet (4.0) and data center interconnect (DCI).
There are design elements in the intelligent systems. It involves data processing — Big Data, computer vision, and speech processing, decision and control — in planning, control and safety, and connectivity — in wireless, networking and security. All have ML as a common element. These are all driving the explosion of data and AI computational needs.
There are drivers of convergence in computational software. These are around system design such as algorithms, hardware, software and multi-physics, AI/ML such as data analytics and EDA, such as ICs, packages and PCBs. There is an explosion of data and AI computational needs, leading to exponentially growing cost and complexity of silicon design, and CPU and software performance scaling. We also need to address the thermal heating, so that the system does not break down. EMI is another area that needs to be addressed. Each one of the process nodes has an implication on the complexities and the cost of design.
Lot of opportunities
Cadence is leading the convergence of intelligent system design, with EDA, AI and system design. It is fueled by pervasive intelligence. There are a lot of opportunities for students as there are several global semiconductor companies in India. Several incubators and accelerators have also been set up. There is the Electropreneur Park, FabCi (Fabless Chip Design Incubator), SFAL, KLE Center for Technology Innovation and Entrepreneurship, and the Incubation Center at IIT Patna. In India, we have many unsolved problems. The challenge is to find the right problem to solve!
There are several projects going on. More needs to be done in the areas such as clean, drinking water, energy conservation, renewable energy and smart energy, waste management, security, education, urban mobility and EV, EV charging and solar, healthcare and medical electronics. Eg., water ATM for clean, affordable water. There is also the Doorastha Analytics at the Electropreneur Park, New Delhi. It is working to optimize the efficiency of solar micro and mini grids. There are interesting problems that require interesting solutions. We need to solve real-world problems with innovative solutions.
Business leaders of tomorrow will be those who can solve the real-world problems in a scalable, profitable and sustainable manner. India is among the fastest-growing electronics market in the world. We have a huge opportunity. There is a huge potential in the bottom-of-the-pyramid solutions.
TSMC to build fab in USA? Amat Q2 results!
Some really interesting news is coming out from the global semiconductor and telecom industries!
First, TSMC has plans to construct an advanced semiconductor plant in Arizona, USA. TSMC Chairman, Mark Liu has reportedly said the company is actively evaluating the US fab plan.
Ok! It is confirmed!! TSMC has announced its intention to build and operate an advanced semiconductor fab in the United States with the mutual understanding and commitment to support from the U.S. federal government and the State of Arizona.
This facility, which will be built in Arizona, will utilize TSMC’s 5-nanometer technology for semiconductor wafer fabrication, have a 20,000 semiconductor wafer per month capacity, create over 1,600 high-tech professional jobs directly, and thousands of indirect jobs in the semiconductor ecosystem. Construction is planned to start in 2021 with production targeted to begin in 2024. TSMC’s total spending on this project, including capital expenditure, will be approximately US$12 billion from 2021 to 2029.
A statement says: “This U.S. facility not only enables us to better support our customers and partners, it also gives us more opportunities to attract global talents. This project is of critical, strategic importance to a vibrant and competitive U.S. semiconductor ecosystem that enables leading U.S. companies to fabricate their cutting-edge semiconductor products within the United States and benefit from the proximity of a world-class semiconductor foundry and ecosystem.”
TSMC holds a distinct technical advantage in terms of advanced process technology, which has encouraged the U.S. government to give TSMC priority as a potential semiconductor partner, according to TrendForce, Taiwan.
TSMC recently announced net revenues for April 2020. On a consolidated basis, revenues for April 2020 were approximately NT$96 billion, a drop of 15.4 percent from March 2020, and an increase of 28.5 percent from April 2019. Revenues for January through April 2020 were NT$406.60 billion, an increase of 38.6 percent, compared to the same period in 2019.
Next, Applied Materials announced Q2 2020 results where it reported a generated 
revenue of $3.96 billion. On a GAAP basis, the company recorded gross margin of 44.2 percent, an operating income of $932 million or 23.6 percent of net sales, and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.82.
“As we navigate the challenges created by Covid-19, we have rallied the company around safety, productivity and keeping our customers and the industry moving forward,” said Gary Dickerson, president and CEO. “While the situation remains fluid, based on the visibility we have today, our supply chain is recovering, and underlying demand for our semiconductor equipment and services remains robust.”
Samsung Electronics reported financial results for Q1 ended March 31, 2020. The total revenue was KRW 55.33 trillion, a decrease of 7.6 percent from the previous quarter, mainly due to weak seasonality for Samsung’s display business and Consumer Electronics Division, and partially due to effects of Covid-19. From a year earlier, revenue rose 5.6% due to increasing demand for server and mobile components.
Another major, an unnamed player (see name after May 20) is launching the industry’s first 20nm radiation tolerant FPGA for space applications.
Intel Capital has announced new investments totaling $132 million in 11 technology startups. These companies are in AI, autonomous computing and chip design. The companies are: Anodot, Astera Labs, Axonne, Hypersonix, KFBIO, Lilt, MemVerge, ProPlus Electronics, Retrace, Spectrum Materials and Xsight Labs.
Elsewhere, GlobalData reports that some regulators have recognized the need to move 
forward with 5G spectrum allocation. In New Zealand, for example, the regulator has decided to direct allocate 5G spectrum in the 3.5GHz band to three operators — Dense Air, Spark and 2degrees, without conducting an auction. Perhaps, India can learn from this!
In the USA, the FCC has allowed major operators, Verizon, AT&T, T-Mobile and US Cellular, to temporarily borrow spectrum from the existing licensees in the 600 MHz and AWS frequency bands (1700 MHz / 2100 MHz) for a 60-day period.
Well, keep watching, folks! There may just may be more good news to share!
Top 5 trends in telecom 2019: Kumar N. Sivarajan, Tejas
The year 2019 is nearly upon us. It is important to understand what are the trends going to be, in this case, in telecom, in the coming year. In a chat, Kumar N. Sivarajan, Tejas Networks CTO, listed the top telecom trends for the year 2019.
Kumar N. Sivarajan.
Top trends
Sivarajan outlined the top five trends in telecom for 2019 as follows:
- 4G (and upcoming 5G) deployments will drive greater fiberization of cell towers around the globe, especially in India, where only 20 percent of cell sites are currently served by optical fiber.
- Large-scale Fiber-to-the-Home (FTTx) rollouts on GPON and NG-PON technologies will gain momentum to cater to the growing fiber broadband market for homes and enterprises.
- High-speed 200G and 400G DWDM interfaces with multi-terabit packet and OTN switching will see increasing adoption in metro and core optical networks.
- Early commercial deployments of 5G technologies based on 3GPP Release 15 will begin with fixed wireless access (FWA) being the anchor use case.
- Continued push for network automation through a combination of SDN (Software-defined Networking) and NFV (Network Function Virtualization) technologies.
Revolutionizing telecom in India
How can 5G network bring about a revolution in Indian telecom industry? He said: ” 5G will represent a significant advance over previous mobile technology generations due to an explosion in the number of network-enabled IoT devices, greater fiberization and densification of cell sites and a disruptive cloud-RAN (C-RAN) architecture. The magnitude of these changes is such that it is likely to have a transformational impact on the 5G network architecture extending right from radio access to the optical metro and core segments.
“5G is introducing a more open deployment model, whereby, complex network functions are decoupled from traditional hardware equipment and realized as software applications in the cloud. Therefore, software and design are expected to be the core competencies and primary differentiators for success in the 5G era.
“Since India has a large technology talent pool with world-class skills in design, R&D and software, 5G lies squarely in its sweet spot. It offers a rare opportunity for India to become a global leader in the telecom sector and maximize the value-addition that we do within the country.”
Growth in 5G networking
What would be the growth opportunities in 5G networking? He added: “Growth opportunities for India in 5G span the entire ecosystem, ranging from handsets, customer premise devices, mobile infrastructure equipment, high-capacity optical transmission equipment and software.
“It is estimated that the global 5G RAN market will be ~$14 billion per annum by 2022, and the global mobile handset market for 4G/5G is projected to be ~$400 billion by 2022. Between base stations, core network equipment and handsets, we believe that 5G represents a $100 billion market for India in the next five years.”
Tejas’ strategy
Next, what will be Tejas’ strategy for growth and industry perspective on innovations? He noted: “Tejas has adopted a novel, software-defined hardware architecture that enables the company to deliver highly differentiated network solutions to telecom service providers.
“Tejas’ products can seamlessly transcend multiple technology generations (2G/3G to 4G/5G) without network disruption and can scale from a few megabits to multi-terabits of switching capacity within the same shelf.
“Over the years, we have also created a rich in-house portfolio of re-usable “building blocks” of hardware as well as software, which enables us to develop cost-effective and highly customizable products and also gives us a time-to-market advantage while introducing new technology features or upgrading to new industry standards such as 5G, NG-PON or SDN/NFV. Our software-led approach also enables us to sell the same product globally by making incremental country-specific adaptations.”
Contribution to 5G R&D
Finally, what has been Tejas’s contribution to 5G R&D? He said: “Tejas is developing comprehensive optical and wireless products that cater to the end-to-end 5G infrastructure market. Our existing optical networking products for metro core and long-haul segments are being evolved to support high-speed 400G/600G interfaces with multi-terabits of packet and OTN switching capabilities.
“In addition, Tejas is incorporating new optical fronthaul standards such as CPRI/eCPRI on our Optical Access and Aggregation products to ensure that they can serve as versatile and universal mobile backhaul platforms from 2G/3G to 4G/5G network rollouts. Tejas is designing converged broadband access and packet transport products that integrate 5G base station (gNB) and 10 Gigabit xPON technologies (NG-PON), along with high-capacity optical backhaul function for highly efficient and cost-effective 5G deployments.
“Tejas is also actively contributing to the global 5G standards through its work in TSDSI, India’s telecom SDO (Standards Development Organization), to ensure that both Indian and emerging market needs are fully incorporated in the upcoming standards.”
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