CASPA
Semiconductor chip shortage, impact, and solutions
There was a panel discussion on semiconductor chip shortage, impact, and solutions at the CASPA 2021 annual conference on global semiconductor innovation and outlook.
The panelists were Hou Hong, Corporate VP and GM of Connectivity Group, Intel, Anthony Le, VP of Marketing, Macronix America, Ms. Emily Yang, Senior VP, Worldwide Sales and Marketing, Diodes Inc., Robert Fan, President, SiliconMotion USA, Jim Handy, General Director, Objective Analysis, and Ms. Nana Tseng, Chief Procurement Officer, Onsemi. The moderator was Brandon Wang, VP, Synopsys.
Wang said in August, Toyota announced cutting production by 40 percent. Last month, GE cut production across four plants. Automotive industry is probably at the icetip of all this. This is a painful period for lot of people. The chip shortage may extend to 2022. Even Apple cut production by 10 million units. Micron said PC customers are having trouble meeting demand. Intel has $20 million investment planned. However, the CEO said it could last by 2023. However, Tesla has said the situation can improve same time, next year. The supply chain keeps the Qualcomm CEO up at night.
Hou Hong, Intel, noted that on the semiconductor fab and foundry side, there are 8-inch equipment that cannot be found. Cost is based on current depreciation schedule. On advanced nodes, it is not as bad. Anything related to power ICs seems to be more constrained. There is more competition and more constraints are in process nodes.
Anthony Le, Macronix America, added when Covid-19 hit, everything could have shut down. Automotive was the first to shut down their factories. PC sales went up as WFH increased. We had to shift the market from automotive to other markets. When automotive turned around, there was huge disruption. Macronix sold an old fab to the Foxconn Group. Even iPhone shortage is due to power management devices. Even PC industry can’t get components. Substrates are driving beyond 30-50 weeks.
Ms. Emily Yang, Diodes Inc., said there is labour shortage. Some mature technologies are carefully handled by companies. There is asset capacity. Majority of investment has been on higher-end technologies. There is no new 6-inch fab being built. We are looking at where to invest, as the uncertainty is still there. There are new protocols also being driven. It is really across the board. Surge of demand is not something that was expected.
Robert Fan, SiliconMotion, said the shortage is not limited to wafers, but also substrates. Semiconductor supply is short right now, and most of next year. Jim Handy, Objective Analysis, noted we have the shortage now. It is in the older technologies. Capacity was growing at a steady rate. Covid-19 led to larger demands. Ms. Nana Tseng, Onsemi, added we are seeing price increases too. That’s a way the supply chain is trying to assess what’s real. If you are committed to a two-year contract, they may take it forward.
Demand real?
Wang said how real are the demands? There could be oversupply after the shortage ends. How do we deal with that? Hou Hong, Intel, said the whole world has been running after power ICs. Other components may not have shortages. There may be some inventory build up, but not with constrained components. Anthony Le, Macronix America, said we have to look at consumer markets. They are hoping supply can be short by six months. 6- and 8-inch fabs will take a year to build. There will be an oversupply, but when! We are looking at Q3 next year.
Ms. Emily Yang, Diodes Inc., said we are seeing for some months that demand has stabilized a bit. Automotive demand is still very strong. Supply is still extremely constrained. Robert Fan, SiliconMotion, said the shortage has been since late last year. Companies have been booking more, so they don’t have a supply problem. People are also not spending so much time on their PCs. The price increase will drive balance of supply and demand. PC industry has been growing 2 percent for several years, but grew 15 percent last year.
Jim Handy, Objective Analysis, said with shortages, we have a panic. People in China were buying lot of inventory back in 2018. This is not happening, currently. We don’t have people building inventories of chips that are not available. It may happen by middle of 2022. Companies who were in bad position, didn’t see this happening. PC slow down has been caused by lack of power management chips. Ms. Nana Tseng, Onsemi, added that we are not able to build inventory, even if we want to. Our partners will also not allocate. We need to sign long-term contracts, but we are moving cautiously.
Best plan?
Wang said this shortage is severe. However, lagging may cause some disruption. What is the best plan to resolve the issue in front of us. Hou Hong, Intel, said we have no plan to increase capacity. Moving to advanced nodes, there is more capacity. Some foundries have some capacity, but they have to be very agile. Customers are on board with the accelerated process.
Anthony Le, Macronix America, said they are doing LTAs with partners. JIT does not work anymore. We are looking at customer forecasts. We can turn to resource suppliers and sign LTAs with them. You don’t want to be building a fab when the market turns. We are looking at designs of ARM products. We need more dies on the wafer. It is probably easier for us. People are now doing design-for-availability.
Ms. Emily Yang, Diodes Inc., said we are going for allocation process. We can get benefit from long-term partnerships. In automotive, the design cycle is short. They are also desperate. Cycles shrink so much. A lot of industries are also looking at how they deal with qualification. Robert Fan, SiliconMotion, said we accumulated some inventory last year. We need to redesign the chips. We are also looking at supply chain. There is price increase, plus substrates pricing.
Jim Handy, Objective Analysis, said people will be trying to design that can be second sourced. There are multiple sources for lot of products. Ms. Nana Tseng, Onsemi, said that nothing beats a phone call to someone you know and say, you need help. We can squeeze some lots in. For materials, we can do the same thing. We need to understand the choke points.
How about redesign?
Wang said redesign is a new aspect. Also, people see friends in a crisis. How do you see the government helping? Jim Handy, Objective Analysis, said governments have started paying more attention to semiconductors. Countries need to do huge changes for self-sufficiency. Efforts will be made by governments, but the industry can solve the problems themselves.
Hou Hong, Intel, said Western countries are waking up to the imbalance. Once you build an infrastructure, that will help. We need more public private partnerships. Anthony Le, Macronix America, said the US government has woken up and need to get involved with. They are seeking less reliance from other countries. Germany is reliant on automotive. If the governments can help partnerships, pass laws, etc., he cannot say that is good for the industry. The less the government is involved, the better. Robert Fan, SiliconMotion, said there are new fabs coming up. Due to the trade tension with China, so, it is taking steps to become self sufficient. But, they also need government support.
Wang asked why was automotive hit the hardest? Hou Hong, Intel, it is not the same for automotive industry alone. Suppliers need to re-adjust their JIT strategy. They will need to make more commitments for long-term supply.
Anthony Le, Macronix America, said the hockey stick scenario happened in the automotive industry. It takes months to come back up. As automotive tried to turn, there was also the Renesas fab issue. Electrification is growing right now. EVs make more sense right now. Ford and GE flipped this year, with EVs. Demand is now exploding. Almost every car on my block is a Tesla. The automotive industry can catch up, but it will not be easy. China said all cars should be EVs by 2030. Demand for cars and electronics will only explode in future. NOR Flash demand is going up.
Ms. Emily Yang, Diodes Inc., said automotive was hit the hardest in Q1 and Q2 of 2020. Existing capacity was being used by other industries. Tesla is not the only one working on EVs. There are functions and features. These are additional requests that add on. Supply is constrained right now.
Ms. Nana Tseng, Onsemi, agreed that the number of components for EVs went up. Lot of allocation also shifted to other markets. When automotive came back, their allocation was transferred to other areas. Assembly in Southeast Asia is impacted by Covid-19.
Jim Handy, Objective Analysis, said automotive was very margin sensitive. They wanted high-reliability parts, and at JIT. Then, Covid-19 hit, and JIT fell apart. They found there was no demand. Their suppliers found customers elsewhere. When automotive players came back, their supply was gone to others. They will probably relook their supply chain.
What about memory?
Wang asked how will the memory market look like in future? Anthony Le, Macronix America, said flash is different from DRAM. There was consolidation in the industry some years back. Lot of big players started to move to other markets. It is a healthy market for Macronix. In DRAM, that’s a wide open market, besides the Korean companies, Chinese companies are growing faster. Our markets are pretty solid right now. Large SSDs are there for infotainment. Also, AI with autonomous driving, there is HBM. DRAM is going to explode.
Jim Handy, Objective Analysis, said every car uses a handful of NOR chips. There are lot of NOR chips in cars. Another area is infotainment systems, with NAND flash. People are looking at autonomous vehicles for DRAM and NAND. They are moving very slowly right now. However, DRAM that looks big today, may be small in the years ahead.
Wang next asked what is the impact of the chip shortage? Ms. Emily Yang, Diodes Inc., said they are eventually impacting consumers. As a consumer, we will ask for more functions. Demand for semiconductor components will continue to grow. Jim Handy, Objective Analysis, said we will see semiconductor market will see prices will drop.
Hong Hou, Intel, said the industry will have significant impact on product landscape. Companies may not have huge war chest to commit to a long-term agreement. Some may become stronger, while some others may phase out.
Also, will you buy chip stocks right now? Hong Hou, Intel, said they will do so, selectively. Ms. Nana Tseng, Onsemi, agreed there will be selective opportunities. Jim Handy, Objective Analysis, felt it is a good time to invest. Ms. Emily Yang, Diodes Inc., felt there are opportunities out there.
Last word
Hong Hou, Intel, said the worst is not yet over. We need to make the right investment, buckle up for a rollercoaster ride ahead. Ms. Nana Tseng, Onsemi, the crisis has stimulated everyone to be appreciative of the supply chain. Lot of work needs to be done to make it all work. We need to manage this efficiently and emerge stronger. It is also time to build new relationships.
Jim Handy, Objective Analysis, congratulated CASPA. He felt the shortage will be shortlived. We will emerge stronger. The industry will survive and thrive after this. Anthony Le, Macronix, said it is an opportunity to focus on business that will help you grow. We need to build relationships with customers. We also need to work with strong partners. Ms. Emily Yang, Diodes Inc., agreed that relationships are important for the future. We all learned a lot. We can also look to improve the technology. We can develop higher-end assembly and process. Robert Fan, SiliconMotion, said there should be better forecasting.
CASPA on global semiconductor innovation and outlook
Chinese American Semiconductor Professional Association (CASPA), Sunnyvale, CA, USA, organized the 2021 annual conference on global semiconductor innovation and outlook, that was held today.
Opening the conference, Xiaodong Zhang, outgoing President and CEO, said CASPA has now completed 30 years. It has a mission of networking and communications. It organizes job fairs and career development programs. It promotes technology innovation and bridges Silicon Valley with the world. He thanked the hundreds of BoDs and volunteers for their long-time service. Since the outbreak of pandemic, nearly all events have gone online. 17 companies have since joined CASPA as sponsors.
CASPA 2021 virtual job fair was organized via Zoom, with 14 companies and 400+ attendees. It is also promoting technology annd organizing conferences. CASPA also launched the first science and engineering fair for K-12 students. He said that the best is yet to come!
Danny Hua, Executive Advisor, CASPA, hosted the transition of CASPA President. Dr. Haohua Zhou was elected as the next President for 2021-2022.
Dr. Haohua Zhou said his journey has been from microelectronics to nanoelectronics. Semiconductors is very important for the society. System gating item is a key aspect. Currently, there is chip shortage, which will be discussed by a panel. There are different perspectives on scaling. There are Moore’s Law and Huang’s Law. Huang’s law is an observation that advancements in GPUs are growing at a rate much faster than traditional CPUs. Huang’s Law states the performance of GPUs will more than double every two years.
There are power/memory/cost walls. We are now witnessing semiconductor renaissance. Semiconductor is gating items in system integration. Semiconductor wall needs system ladder to climb over. He invited people and companies to join CASPA as members.
CASPA to organize conference on semiconductor innovation and outlook
Chinese American Semiconductor Professional Association (CASPA) organized a press conference today on global semiconductor innovation and outlook. The main conference is scheduled for October 16, 2021.
Hao Hua Zhou, Secretary General, CASPA, welcomed everyone. Xiao Dong, Chairman and President, CASPA, said its the 30th anniversary of the association. There was a video showing CASPA’s brief history. CASPA has developed over the last 30 years to become a leading industry body. It currently has over 6,000 members and 11 chapters worldwide. Several past presidents, TSMC North America, SEMI, etc., extended best wishes to CASPA. The annual conferences have attracted over a thousand attendees. CASPA has also helped in technology development and training, etc.
Hong Hou, CVP, Intel, said they have been working on compound semiconductors for three decades. High-bandwidth data will burn lot of power. Optics come in play as an interconnect. Intel has been working on silicon photonics. It has combined compound semiconductors with silicon. We can use silicon waveguide to split and modulate light. We can build photodetectors in there. Intel’s investment 20 years ago was focusing on hybrid bonding. We can use 300nm CMOS technology to build silicon photonics, etc.
Shai Cohen, Founder and CEO, ProteanTecs, will talk about an entirely new problem. The issue of silent data corruption is becoming more, and the consequences are many. He will give a talk about how to prevent such failures.
Ms. Calista Redmond, CEO, RISC-V International, said we have entered the most exciting times in semiconductors today, since 1980. RISC-V has seen open collaboration. There are opportunities to lower the barriers of entry.
Hong Hou said the chip challenges will continue for now. The Intel CEO has announced investment in a new foundry. Capacity has been fully allocated for 2022. We see limited capacity increase. Improvement can happen in 2023. The problem is also in substrates. Currently, the situation is challenging for the next four-five quarters.
Brandon Wang, Synopsys, and moderator at the conference, asked how do we see the next generation of chips going forward? Hong Hou, Intel said they are developing a merit for bandwidth density and power. Anthony Le, VP, Macronix America, said he was excited to be in the panel for semiconductor chip shortage and impact.
What is the difference in the chip shortage now, and 30 years ago? Jim Handy, Objective Analysis, said there are things such as demand that is difficult to predict. There used to 15-year intervals where there was little demand in some places of the world. This current situation is different, and may be triggered by the pandemic.
Friends, should you wish to register free for the CASPA conference, the link is https://bit.ly/3iGgpZB!
What a year, 2020! Welcome 2021!!
Welcome, 2021! The year 2020 is gone!! It is history!!! It was the year of the Covid-19, or, coronavirus. Note: the pandemic has not yet gone. Now, a new strain is doing the rounds. Some vaccines have already started shipping. Luckily, my family, and I have survived the year 2020! We sincerely hope you and your families have survived, as well. How many of us can survive this year? Fingers crossed, we hope that everyone should! We now look forward to the new year. There are hopes for proper vaccines, and those should be available for all, hopefully, soon!
Today, I wish to speak about how 2020 turned out to be a great year for me. Till March 2020, things were slow, as usual. Thereafter, they changed, and, fast! It all started with Yole Développement, France’s rapid, point-of-care molecular tests that help fight Covid-19, last April. There was a Semtech webinar on 5G fact vs. fiction, and how LoRaWAN plays a role. Next, Messe Muenchen India, hosted a webinar titled: ‘Opportunities in Medical Electronics post Covid-19’.
These were followed by the iconic IEEE International Reliability Physics Symposium (IRPS) 2020 in May 2020. For 57 years, the IRPS has been premiere conference for engineers and scientists to present new and original work in the area of microelectronics reliability. I made a new lot of followers.
Next, came Nokia, with the world’s first drone tsunami evacuation alerts in Sendai City, Japan. Infineon Technologies had a session on smart buildings. The Small Cell Forum spoke about how it was driving the ecosystem of small cell mobile infrastructure. This was followed by Dassault Systèmes and Aden Group for the Akila Care hospital for Covid-19, after the Leishenshan hospital in Wuhan, China! May 2020 ended with SEMI, SEMI Foundation and The Gig Economy webinar titled: Designing the future of work!
June 2020 was an even bigger month! BloombergNEF presented on India’s clean power revolution. Next, there was the 2020 Symposia on VLSI Technology and Circuits. It was held virtually for the first time! Following this came the IEEE 70th Electronic Components and Technology Conference (ECTC) 2020. Again, it was virtually held, for the first time. And, again, more followers came in!
Semicon West ahoy!
In July, the Semicon West 2020 event was held virtually, for the first time. According to Al Gore, some of the innovation around new materials is immense! So was ITC India 2020! Among the many presentations, one on ‘silicon lifecycle challenges and expanding role of test’, stood out. From Canada, there was an invite to cover Zinc8 Energy Solutions that redefines long-duration energy storage! And, what readership followed! 😉
August saw SEMI, ESD Alliance, and McKinsey present on the future mobility disruptions on semiconductor design ecosystem. There was the IoT World 2020, as well. There was focus on data exchanges as the IoT market continues growth.
Interesting Display Week!
Next came Display Week 2020, thanks to an invite from long-time friend, Sri Peruvemba. This presented an opportunity to interact with the Display Supply Chain Consortium (DSCC). Foldable displays continue to advance! OLEDs are expected to lead from 2019-2024! An interesting session was about the women in technology.
September saw the Embedded Vision Summit 2020, where, I received an invitation, courtesy, Jeff Bier. Next came the SEMI Strategic Materials Conference (SMC) 2020. One presentation talked about silicon photonics and heterogenous integration challenges. SEMI also hosted a conference with Indium Corp., titled: What’s driving automotive electronics assembly and packaging? The IFA 2020 Berlin went virtual too!
Malcolm Penn, Future Horizons, UK, has predicted that the global semiconductor industry should grow 12 percent in 2021. Yole Developpement had a session on the NAND flash memory business. The Cadence Live 2020 event also went virtual for the first time.
Next came SEMI Global Smart Manufacturing Conference 2020. One standout presentation was on Predict and prevent automotive semiconductor zero defect enablement. In October, the future potential of 5G was unlocked at the GSMA Thrive North America 2020. There was Indian PM Narendra Modi at India Energy Forum by CERAWeek.
CASPA and FHE
The Chinese American Semiconductor Professional Association (CASPA) organized its annual conference: Next Wave of Semiconductor Innovation, in the USA, last October, where Dr. Walden (Wally) Rhines presented the keynote.
For those keen, fully homomorphic encryption (FHE) has long been described as transformative for cloud security. The algorithm was developed to enable computing on encrypted data sets, keeping the underlying data secure. It is a game-changer in cloud computing. I had to be awake till 4am for this, and am grateful for a wonderful presentation. 😉
Next, BNEF London 2020 summit called for green recovery. This was followed by the SEMI and MATRADE session on the global semiconductor market. There was the 9th Americas Spectrum Management Conference, as well. SEMI organized the MEMS & Sensors Executive Congress (MSEC 2020). A standout report was tinyML, and the massive opportunity when MI meets real world of billions of sensors.
I also had the pleasure of covering Dr. Roslyn Layton, Co-founder, China Tech Threat, on the report: US tightens controls on exports to SMIC, China! Is there a way out? Again, all of these events were in October. I really had a tough time covering all! 😉
In November, there was the Intel FPGA Technology Day 2020, as well as Xilnx’s Xilinx Adapt: 5G event. The 5GAA organized a conference on CV2X in Europe. Yole Développement and Teledyne had a session on glass and silicon bioMEMS components for medical devices. Yole and Chip Integration Technology Center (CITC), the Netherlands, also hosted an event on power and RF packaging. There was the Siemens AG Digital Enterprise SPS Dialog event, as well.
I was pleasantly surprised on receiving an invite from the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) to participate in their 22nd Ministerial Meeting. Since GECF does not feature India, I was curious. So, I attended, and covered! 😉
Next, Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) examined China’s semiconductor self-sufficiency, in November. There was the IoT TechEx North America 2020, as well. Global Semiconductor and Electronics Forum 2020, presented many more opportunities to network.
Decadal plans
December, the last month of 2020, began with SEMI, USA, webinar on market data resources and equipment materials outlook for 2021. Next, Semiconductor Industry Association had a session on decadal plan for semiconductors setting 2030 goals.
Yole Développement and System Plus Consulting hosted the session on how 3D packaging was breaking new ground. Semiconductor Industry Association had another webinar on how semiconductors were driving automotives. These were followed by the 4th CIS & CEE Spectrum Management Conference, which I could not cover properly enough. This was largely due to the unfamiliar Russian dialect! There was also the RISC-V summit. Finally, my niece, Ms. Shelley Bhattacharjee, got married (see image). 🙂 We had to fly to Bangalore, followed by the mandatory quarantine, on return.
Whew! That’s quite a list, and tremendous coverage! 2020 has been a year full of semiconductors. My blog has seen growing number of readers this past year. The global semiconductor industry also continued its unrelenting march, despite a very tough year gone by.
Bangalore trip
During the trip to Bangalore, the sight at the airport was amazing. Long queues for entry, preferably, mobile check-ins, and air hostesses wore PPE kits, etc. Some middle-seat passengers were in PPE kits. We all had to wear masks and head gear. In Bangalore, most of my friends did not even turn up to meet me, after promising. I understand their plight! Those who did, were grateful and thankful. As was I! Everyone lamented the plight that we all were in. They wanted the pandemic to disappear and things getting back to normal. One hopes that does happen this year.
On a personal note, virtual events are good, and probably, here to stay. However, they do not always bring the right audience, and of course, the speakers were missing the applauses. There were no master of ceremonies in many cases. In some cases, there was poor connectivity. Nevertheless, everyone provided post-event recordings. While you get to hear the very best about the latest in technology, there were hardly any demonstrations. Of course, there were the various, different background noises, in some cases, of babies crying, children and various partners screaming, and whistles of the pressure cooker. But then, this is a pandemic. Everyone is working from home! No one was ready for this situation!!
On the other side, literally driven to the corners, the world has found new resilience and adaptability. Thanks to WFH, there is now more family time. Friends long lost, have re-appeared. For me, especially, some industry events, earlier unthinkable, were easily available. Simply because: I put out their story first! 😉
There were some other events related to Industry 4.0, as well, on telecom and solar/PV. Rockwell Automation had its annual conference. As did Siemens! In telecom, there was the GSMA Thrive North America 2020 and the 9th Americas Spectrum Management Conference. Intel and IoT Solutions Alliance presented the telemetry and video analytics for Industry 4.0.
Dr. Wally Rhines featured by way of EDA adoption by IT companies. DVClub Europe (Design & Verification Club) looked at IP integration into complex SoCs. For electronic components, OTI’s ConducTorr CPM materials are now compatible with all OLED display manufacturing! Mention also needs to be made of IoT World 2020.
What’s next?
Already, there are multiple invites to cover conferences all over the world in 2021! There are semiconductors, along with Industry 4.0, medical electronics, telecom, etc. My first stop in the new year will be the Industry Strategy Symposium (ISS) 2021, organized by SEMI, USA.
Next, there is the PMWC 2021, at Silicon Valley, USA. The event will honor Dr. Anthony Fauci, White House coronavirus task force member. He has served as the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 1984. There is a possibility of meeting him too! Let’s see how it all goes! There is also the Technology Unites by SEMI, later.
As one wise man said, true unity begins at all of our homes, with our respective families. Let us all hope and pray for a safer, better, and healthier 2021, and beyond. It is time to pat yourselves on the back. Rise, and shine! Stay safe, and prosper, dear friends!!
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