Electronic Components
Global semiconductor industry forecast updated to +4.9 percent to $552.762 billion for 2024: Future Horizons
IFS 2024 semiconductor industry mid-year outlook by Future Horizons, was held today in Kent, UK.
Malcolm Penn, Chairman and CEO, started with the really good news first. Downturn had bottomed in Q1-2023. Golden cross was breached in July 2023. Then, the really worrying news! It was supposed to be sunshine. Suddenly, there’s storms on the horizon. The death cross could hit as early as June or July 2024. Let’s hope (and pray), this proves the fallacy of extrapolations.
The 2023 market took off with a vengeance. It bottomed out at $119.511 billion at -8.2 percent in Q-23. In Q2-23, there was strong rebound at $126.714 billion at 6 percent. In Q-23, there was solid growth at $134.674 billion at 6.3 percent. Q4 saw above seasonal growth at $145.986 billion at 8.4 percent. 2023 finished at $526.885 billion, with -8.1 percent growth.
Downturn bottomed one quarter earlier than the ‘4-quarter norm’. Ultra strong Q2 was an unexpected surprise, even to TSMC. Q3 powered forward at strong seasonal level, and Q4 was even stronger. Semiconductor industry was originally forecast at -8 percent vs. -20 percent in 2023. ‘Super cycle’ (irrational) exuberance pitched 2025 forecasts in the ‘high 20 percent’. So, what could possibly go wrong?
The wheels fell off in Q1-2024. The global semiconductor industry moved from +8.4 percent to -5.7 percent in Q1-24 to $137.717 billion. Was this train wreck or fender bender? Whoever said this industry can’t still pull surprises?
Monthly IC growth rate turned steeply positive in Sep. 2023, and then, plateaued in Dec. Opto and discretes were still deeply in recession. Was it more representative?
There are four sides to the same cycle. All IC sectors follow the same cyclical pattern. No sector is immune. Logic first (Jun. 2023), and then micro (Jul. 2023), followed by memory (Sep. 2023). Analog ICs still have yet to recover (Mar. 2024?).
Europe has finally succumbed to the semiconductor recession. Having weathered the downturn, Europe has now fallen on its sword. Weak economy and heavy dependence on automotive and industrial are said to be factors. Is this more indicative of underlying global market health?
Looking at the global IC annual growth rate unit and value trends, recovery in market value was driven by Q2-2023 IC ASP rebound. IC unit growth has yet to recover. Also, watch out for IC ASP growth rates that may crash mid-2024.
Downturn recovery was: units first, and ASPs a year later. But, not this time, as it was ASPs first, and in 40 years history, it’s never happened before! This flies in the face of free market economics supply/demand fundamentals. It may either be a quirk of math (percentages can be misleading).
Take a hard look at the details! Strong market value growth was driven by ASPs, and not units. We make and sell units, not dollar bills. We have still ongoing excess inventory and slow end-market demand are underlying causes for lackluster demand. Current situation is exacerbated by hangover impact of plethora of long-term price agreements (LTAs) from post-Covid-19 market boom.
This is aided and abetted by slowdown in demand due to impact of inflation and interest rate rises on consumer and business spending. Capacity utilization rates are mostly in 70-75 percent range. The bulk of chip market is not Nvidia GPUs and AI apps. It is hard to call a recovery, when the unit demand is in doldrums. 2023 was never the start of another semiconductor super-cycle!
Industry outlook
The global economy is still shrouded in confusion and uncertainty. We are trapped in a roller-coaster netherworld of divergent economic reports. Rise in US labor costs sent two-year treasuries yields over 5 percent. It was counteracted three days later by report of smallest increase in wages since 2021.
US retail sales are seemingly surging, yet GDP growth is slowing. Industrial production has been rising, while manufacturing has been easing. Jobless claims are holding steady, yet, hiring has ticked down. There is will they or won’t they conundrum on high interest rates and inflation. If you feel confused, it is rightly so! And, so, too is the market!
US unemployed job seeker rates have hit parity. Arizona and New York state are set to soon join this list. One or more ratio is bad news for job seekers, but good for economy. The trend is in line with the Fed’s gradual labor market cooling agenda.
Eurozone finally exited recession in Apr. 2024. Q1-2024 GDP increased 0.3 percent vs. Q4-2023. This is the strongest pace in 18 months! Consumer prices rose at an annual 2.4 percent rate in March and April. June is now seen as the ECB’s likely start of EU monetary easing.
The stock market has remained remarkably calm. Semiconductor market needs a strong economy to thrive. When interest rates rise, cost of borrowing goes up. This impacts the cost of cars, credit cards, and mortgages. Impact is cushioned by high post-Covid-19 savings and credit card borrowings. These are not a bottomless pit! One day spending cutbacks are inevitable.
Unit shipments are still way below long-term average. It is currently 24.6 percent below 8.2b/week maxed out peak, and 14.1 percent below long-term trend line. 69b units are still to go! It is highly improbable that the much-vaunted unit balance will happen this year. We can’t claim recovery until IC unit growth resumes!
Capex is finally cutting back. Capex percent IC sales peaked Q1-2023 at highest rate ever, beating Dot.Com bubble boom. Feb. 2024 saw total spend back to the 14 percent safe-haven level. Capex cutback is likely for rest of 2024, given soft unit demand (tech Pull vs. capacity build). Also, global new fab capacity starting production in 2024 is up 6.4 percent (42) vs. 2023 (11).
China impact
There is the impact of China on capex. Non-China capex cut back started on cue in Q2-2023, or, three quarters after market collapse. China spend has now reached an apocalyptic proportions of 47.2 percent of total capex spend. Current level is 34 percent higher than 2023, and 80 percent higher than 2022. China capex is a serious red flag, aka solar panels, EV batteries, and vehicles.
As per TrendForce, China chip production should rise 60 percent in next two years, and be 2X in five years. New units are now completed or under construction, or planned in places, such as Beijing, Tianjin, Jilin, Dalian, Qingdao, Yancheng, Wuxi, Suzhou, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Wuhan, Xi’an, Hefei, Nanjing, Xinxiang, etc.
ASPs are moving from rout to recovery. IC ASPs peaked in Feb. 2024, and 52 percent higher than July 2022’s $1.10 downturn low. We can expect to see an ASP correction in H2-2024, especially given the industry overcapacity. What goes up (down) must go down (up), with long-term average growth is zero.
Market forecast
So far, economy is an enigmatic mix of contradictory factors. Unit demand is running way below long-term average. In capacity, non-China capex has now prudently reined back. We have massive China overspend way beyond needs. ASPs have been in steep upward trajectory since May 2023.
There is red flag alert – chip market fundamentals are still systemically very weak. We have continuing unsettled economic and geo-political outlook. Longer-term potential pressure is on mature market nodes, thanks to China, plus Chips Acts.
Forecast revised to +4.9 percent
In Jan. 2024, we forecast the global semiconductor industry to be +16 percent, an upward revision from Sept. 2022 9 percent. 17th industry up cycle started in Q1-2023, and ASP is not unit driven. 2024 forecast is now +16 percent (+12 percent bear and +20 percent bull. Enjoy the value growth spurt, but, beware ‘spreadsheet’ vs ‘real recovery’. Worsening economic outlook can push recovery into bear territory.
Q1-2024 crashed, and +3 percent forecast became -5.7 percent actual, down from Q4’s 8.4 percent. Market crash was sudden and unexpected, starting in Jan. 2024. IC unit demand started to fall through the floor. At the same time, IC ASP growth stalled. The combined impact was calamitous, wiping $10 billion from the forecast. Negative Q1 now makes Q2 growth unlikely. Now, more than ever, keep a strong eye on the data.
There is no way now that 2024 will be double-digit growth. We are back to the drawing board for our 16 percent forecast for global semiconductor industry in 2024. We have now updated forecast for 2024 to +4.9 percent to $552.762 billion. $56 billion were wiped off the new full year number. We are back to Sept. 2023 single-digit number. We are back to 2021’s $555 billion number! Bullish forecast is 8 percent growth to $569.086 billion for 2024.
Key takeaways
The notion that AI will take over the world is pure science fiction. They do increasingly more complex grunt work! But, unlike humans, they can’t do things such as imagination, originality, kindness, creativity, gut feeling, joy, sadness, ecstasy, pride, depression, love, feeling of ownership, physical pleasure, physical pain, mental turmoil, etc.
In automotive, all roads lead to China. An increasing number of MNCs seemingly believe the only way to catch up with Chinese carmakers, which have prioritized EVs and advanced technologies, is to Incorporate technology they use in their own models.
First, Volkswagen announced a series of groundbreaking tie-ups with China. Next, Toyota unveiled a new partnership with WeChat owner, Tencent. Then, Nissan announced a similar partnership with search giant, Baidu. Hyundai also announced it will develop batteries with China’s CATL. Let’s hope it all doesn’t end up in tears. Being a follower (slow or fast) is a proven risky strategy.
We are also getting to see flying EVs from China. XPeng, EHang, and others are leveraging know-how in batteries. An XPeng subsidiart is developing an integrated eVTOL vehicle that can drive on land and fly without separating modules.
In Moore’s Law, TSMC has an advanced technology roadmap. It unveiled a surprise A16 (1.6nm) node, scheduled for mass production in 2026. The last FINFET node is being stretched to its limit!
In high NA lithography, Intel has bet its chance to catch TSMC at 1.4nm node on being the first user of high-NA EUV lithography. Installation is complete and calibration has started on Intel’s high numerical aperture extreme UV lithography tool in Intel’s fab D1X at Hillsboro, Oregon.
The backend’s also getting tricky, especially with HBM. Nvidia H100 comprises MPU/MCU (GPU), discretes (MOSFET), analog (power management), and memory.
So, how sustainable is current value-based rebound? Not until IC unit growth returns. Unit growth return is unlikely before 2025. It is so far, so good, but the road ahead is potholed for the world economy. Current surge in ASPs is part of the normal cycle.
2023 recovery was a ‘spreadsheet’, and not any ‘real market’ recovery. We are still some way off from the start of the next semiconductor supercycle. AI is generally a product enabler. Will the Chip Acts save or overstimulate the industry? The answer is: both, caveat emptor! How will the current China policy play out? It depends on the US elections. Now, Q1 has crashed! What’s the future? The recovery will be harsh!
Pradeep’s Techpoints is media partner for Leti Innovation Days 2024
CEA-Leti, France, is organizing the Leti Innovation Days 2024, June 25-27, at Maison MINATEC Congress Center, Grenoble, France. It is my pleasure to inform you all that Pradeep’s Techpoints is a media partner for the event.
The world needs lower-power, more resource-efficient electronics for an array of use cases. The semiconductor industry is excited about the recent surge in investments. It is very good news for the global semiconductor industry. It will also create unprecedented opportunities. Partnerships will be instrumental to getting relevant, robust, and reliable products to markets faster.
Seven tracks
At Leti Innovation Days 2024, there will be seven tracks. Plenary session is generally the most attended. Other tracks are on: electronics and sustainability, tech for health, 3D heterogeneous integration, sense and act, new materials for computing, and RF and telecommunications.
Besides the plenary, I recommend 3D heterogeneous integration, and new materials for computing, Of course, you have the right to choose your own tracks! 😉
Laith Altimime, President, SEMI Europe, will kick off the plenary, talking about global collaborations enabling $1 trillion by 2030. Fabio Gualandris, President, Quality, Manufacturing & Technology, STMicroelectronics, will speak about innovate, integrate, elevate your lab-to-fab fast track. Sanjay Natarajan, SVP & GM, Components Research, Intel, will discuss the future of compute: accelerating Moore’s Law innovation. David Anderson, President, NY CREATES, and former SEMI USA President, and Coby Hanoch. CEO, Weebit Nano, also have presentations.
Electronics and sustainability track has sessions on water resource and climate resource, respectively. Tech for health track has sessions from Thales, Injectpower, Travera, CEA-Leti, etc. 3D heterogeneous integration track has speakers from Cerebras Systems, IBM Research, Lightmatter, etc. Talks will also be delivered by Prophesee, Siemens EDA, IBM Quantum Computing, CERN, Aledia, etc.
Sense and act track has speakers from STMicroelectronics, TDK, Philips MEMS Foundry, Bosch Sensortec GmbH, Horiba, Leti, etc. New materials for computing track has speakers from Intel, CEA, Aixtron, Tokyo Institute of Technology, ASM, Applied Materials, University of Tokyo, Merck, etc. Finally, the RF and telecommunications track has speakers from Soitec, Leti, Murata, Stellantis, HPE, etc.
The tech exhibition will have 50+ live presentations. One-health demonstrators and CEA-Leti will show technologies for medical imaging, medical devices, pharma, biotech R&D, and environmental monitoring for improved human, animal, and environmental health. Also on display would be the latest silicon breakthroughs and smart system solutions. Startups are crucial to getting new technologies from labs to the market. This year, you don’t want to miss the new LiDAR, sensing, and health startups.
CEA-Leti partners span the entire semiconductor value chain. Partners’ Corner will make their expertise available in one convenient location. CEA-Leti is supported by Carnot network of French RTOs. CEA is a key player in R&D and innovation in four key areas. These are: defense and security, low carbon energies (nuclear and renewables), tech research for industry, and fundamental research in physical sciences and life sciences.
This is my second appearance as media partner, having earlier been associated with Asia Photonics Week 2024, Singapore, March 2024.
Look forward to seeing you all in Grenoble! 😉
How semiconductor innovation drives greater energy efficiency and productivity?
Semiconductors are critical to the functioning of modern world, driving economic competitiveness, national security, and technologies, ranging from GenAI to electric vehicles. As industries continue to advance capabilities of their technologies, chips used in these systems will need to provide more processing power, and require more energy consumption. Managing the increasing energy demands for these technologies, involves new innovation in devices like power management ICs.
Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), USA, organized seminar today on Powering the future: How semiconductor innovation drives greater energy efficiency and productivity?
The panelists were: Alaa El Sherif, Senior Fellow, and Chief Architect, NXP, Jeff Halbig, Product Marketing Manager, STMicroelectronics, Athar Zaidi, Senior VP and Business Line Head of Power IC and Connectivity, Infineon, and Al Wu, MD, Multi-Market Power Business Unit, Analog Devices. The session was moderated by Robert Casanova, Director, Industry Statistics and Economic Policy, SIA.
PMICs for different apps
Al Wu, Analog Devices, said that there are power management ICs used for automotive. Within the automotive, there are cameras using PMICs, and also for LED lighting, power distribution, 48V bus, infotainment, power management, etc. Power is sent throughout the vehicle for various purposes. We are focused on power efficiency. We also have LED lighting that need precision current control and matrix LED drivers.
Another area is industrial automation. Eg., the robotic arm, which needs motor control, power distribution, monitoring and intelligence control, precision sensing, motor control such as accuracy and GaN drivers, etc. We need to ensure that the power supply is working fine.
In data centers, we need distribution bus, AI processor, system management for precision measurement and control, power protection and hot swap, optical module, power-over-Ethernet, buck controller, etc. We are working on improving resiliency and flexibility. You have to do packaging and testing right through.
Factors driving power semicon
Alaa El Sherif, NXP, talked about factors driving power semiconductors. AI and ML are enabled by advancements in HPC GPUs and CPUs, and high-speed networking. They drive smarter systems that improve productivity and lives. We have AI-powered systems seeing dramatic improvement. We also have AI-induced energy demand. We have sustainability and e-waste reduction too.
The compute performance keeps increasing. SoC technology also keeps scaling. SDV and BEV E/E architecture is undergoing evolution. Sustainability for energy efficiency and e-waste reduction are happening.
Zonal-ization of vehicle brings new challenges. We have predictable failure, full tolerance, etc. We also need to develop new architectures. As example, BEVs and AI servers adopt efficient energy management and 48V bus to reduce distribution losses. Faster point of load is running at higher architecture.
AI is certainly becoming dominant in our lives, covering all areas and apps. AI system introduces dramatic energy demand impact. AI-induced energy demand challenge becomes more significant with energy shortage and sustainability efforts. All of this underscores the importance of efficient power management and energy management architectures and solutions.
NXP has focus on all areas, including USB-C and power delivery, industrial and IoT systems, such as smart homes, smart cities, factory automation, medical imaging, and surgery, personal wearables, and personal health devices.
Efficient AI = more power!
Athar Zaidi, Infineon stated that AI is a transformational technology. We need power management for efficient AI. Already 77 percent of global population uses AI in some shape or form. The global AI market is worth $196 billion.
AI accelerated power demand in data centers. This increases needs for energy efficient solutions. Data centers’ share of global final electricity was 2 percent in 2022. Power supply of an existing data center is limited in medium term. There is focus on powering AI energy efficiently, without compromising on robustness and TCO. GenAI also increases the power needs.
Efficient AI is a multi-dimensional problem. Power management cannot be an after-thought. Increasing compute is only one side of the coin. We need more efficient power management. Brute force power for AI could break the grid. Exponential rise in power consumption for Nvidia GPUs is being witnessed. We need to re-architect the whole system. There is also the risk of drain on the grid.
We can focus on powering AI data center more efficiently. We can reduce carbon footprint. We are using advanced packaging for density and cooling. We are enabling smart control and systems. We are designing silicon and wide-band gap-based efficient power supplies.
We are innovating on various fronts. We are improving power efficiency by at least 8-10 percent. We have increased power density by 30-60 percent. We are looking at best-in-class robustness, best-in-class TCO, and save 22 million metric tons of CO2. Infineon offers best-in-class energy efficiency, power density, and TCO.
Heart of energy conversion systems
Jeff Halbig, STMicroelectronics, talked about use of power semiconductors in emerging apps. Power semiconductors are at the heart of all energy conversion systems. We can have more energy with less resources, more performance with less energy, more mobility with fewer emissions, and more connectivity with less consumption.
Over 30 percent global electricity demand will increase from 2020 to 2030. We can have 45 percent CO2 emission reduction from 2010 to 2030, to limit warning to 1.5degree C. Our products and solutions enable customer innovation. There are variety of power technologies in use.
Power transistor market will increase from $23 billion in 2022 to to $37 billion at 10.8 percent CAGR from 2023-2027. Industrial will see 8.3 percent CAGR increase, etc. SiC has properties, and is a WBG material. WBG is 3X more than silicon. It has 10x higher critical electrical field, 10X higher voltage at same size, 90 percent lower resistance at same voltage, 10X faster switching, etc.
SiC MOSFET manufacturing from flow to final product is with the major semiconductor players. ST is a leader with about 50 percent share. Total manufacturing flow requires tremendous expertise. SiC has key advantages for automotive and industrial. Some are longer driving range, faster charging, and car weight reduction for automotive. For industrial, it is the increased power efficiency, reduced TCO, and smaller, compact machines.
ST’s go-to-market strategy is about establishing value add proposition. ST organizes lab and marketing collaterals with consistent message, and intimate customer engagement. We are prioritizing resources and opportunities. STMicroelectronics also does customer collaborations through to design production.
Co-opetition is new game
Halbig addd we have to see the investments in our capacities, via the CHIPS Acts. We should invest even more rapidly in power semiconductor silicon. Zaidi added that the software players are also becoming hardware players. Power has to be taken care of, and billions of dollars need to be invested.
Halbig said we are also engaging with several universities. We should message in the right way. Alaa El Sherif added that the market needs to understand innovation in both analog and power, rather than look at basic models. Al Wu noted power management is becoming popular nowadays. We need to explain that to even more people.
Zaidi added that we need to have joint labs with customers, focus more on coming up with the systems and make the best-performing topology. That topology also needs to shine! Finally, the new name of the game is co-opetition, rather than competition. We need to be cooperating with competitors to achieve a common goal or get ahead. Co-opetition is gaining traction!
New leaders can capture the chiplet revolution
TechInsights, USA, organized a fireside chat today on the global semiconductor industry.
G. Dan Hutcheson, Vice Chair, TechInsights, said, the Chinese economy has been starting to recover now. We are also getting into a new PC up-cycle. Companies are also trying to move their centers of excellence to the other countries. We are seeing a normal upside right now. You do get some variation in supply over the period of 12 months. We are also moving into the 2nm era next year.
The magnificent seven for everybody includes: Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, etc. Microsoft and Apple came out of the PC era. Amazon and Google came out in the 2000s. Nvidia came out of semiconductors. Tesla happened later. Apple is still riding on the smartphone. We also have the growing EV market. AI has also been emerging strong. However, AI stocks were worst performing among semiconductors stocks last week.
Nvidia has done a double lock-up recently. It has GPUs and whole system. They are re-architecting the way the data center works. Nvidia is, where it is today. We now need a new technology to be the next big thing. When Apple iPhone first came in, it started a new revolution. It always surprises you!
We will have new leaders in future. We will also see new leaders capturing the growing chiplet revolution. The foundries that exist would not have been possible without the EDA revolution. Chiplets have now emerged as the new revolution.
We have neural network processors already. We also have cellphone APUs. There are some really cool things coming that will help organizing your life, especially using the smartphone.
AI is seeing huge explosion in entrepreneurial pursuit. Several AI chip startups will be coming up. GPUs always had an innate advantage. GPUs chips were power hungry. We now need to partition that down to smaller parts. PCs had closed architecture partnership between Intel and Microsoft. We later saw the explosion of innovation around apps. AI is more of a curiosity right now. IBM used it to help physicians diagnose cancer. Today, it has become routine. AI solutions will take step forward, and bring real value.
China needs to catch up
As for domestic Chinese companies in AI, China is developing its own core technology. Taiwan has been incredibly successful as it has access to the global technologies. China also needs to do lot of classical innovation to get forward. Doing a lot of innovation can be very cultural. Silicon Valley is one example to follow. We are hoping that China can catch up, and get back to the order, and we can get back the global order.
AI will be used on chips to improve MCU/MPU performance. Synopsys is a world leader that enables all of that. We are also seeing new process technologies being developed. However, we still need the human intelligence to make all of this happen. AI, as a tool for engineers, may make them struggle. People were locked into their tools earlier. You have to be really good at using all the weapons at your disposal. If you don’t, you can be left behind. We are also going to go through another productivity surge in future
Regarding alternatives to silicon, he said that God was bullish on silicon. It has proved to be the best material. Today, we have substrates with specific functions. We have to get around the interconnect level. Data centers are migrating further down to the new chips. Quantum does replace it! However, it will co-exist with silicon.
Lead times are delivered largely by the complexity of the problem addressed. Today, we have about 2,000 process steps, but the lead time is still 12-13 weeks. We have to address complexity. We had the case of just-in-time. We may create disaster if we moved to just-in-case. Shrinking lead times requires you to decrease utilization. We saw lead times decrease to 60 percent, using utilization. Intel had increased utilization by increasing hot spots.
We also need to look at the supply chain. As we become more efficient, we may also be dealing with even more complexity. We cannot see that either happen, or decrease, in the forseeable future. Regarding NAND demand, we are witnessing the incoming demand, at least from data centers.
Japan getting back mojo!
Finally, which country can emerge as a semiconductor powerhouse? Japan is finally getting over lost decades. Japan is coming back certainly. It appears that Japan has got back its mojo after a long time. China is also going to grow. India has an advantage of cheap labor force. India may have difficulty in duplicating the success of software. It has advantages and disadvantages.
Japan and South Korea are much ahead right now. The US recovery is also taking place. Mexico is starting to rise. That’s driving new factories inside Mexico. Canada has a liberal immigration policy. Some of the best and brightest are present there. There is always opportunity. With technology, you need to run faster, work smarter, etc.
He hoped that everyone is safe in Taiwan, following the earthquake. Despite the severity of the tremors, the impact on Taiwan’s semiconductor manufacturing capacity appears to be limited. TSMC has done, and been doing incredible work in the future.
CHIPS R&D semiconductor supply chain trust gets essential!
CHIPS R&D Semiconductor Supply Chain Trust & Assurance Data Standards Workshop started today in Rockville, Maryland, USA.
As semiconductor products are manufactured, key transactions are captured as data in different digital twin ecosystem modules (e.g., raw materials acquisition, design, layout, tape-out, mask making, chip fabrication, testing, packaging, and assembly). Digital twin modules must be linked together to allow backward traceability across these ecosystems, and to enable access to accumulated supply chain data for traceability, authentication, and provenance tracking.
Yaw Obeng, CHIPS R&D, welcomed the audience. He also introduced the Workshop Planning Committee.
Addressing supply chain issues
Carl McCants, Special Assistant to DARPA Director, presented the opening keynote on DARPA’s history in the semiconductor supply chain trust and assurance standards. It has been focused on addressing supply chain issues. We had a grand challenge in 2005, where we wanted autonomous cars. We had failed back then.
DARPA has been creating breakthrough, paradigm-shifting solutions. We are accepting and managing risks as well. Concern with globalized microelectronics ecosystem has also been addressed within DoD since 2000. DARPA TRUST and IRIS programs developed the techniques for validating design and process integration before distribution.
He also talked about EDA and testing, and whether the tools were doing what they were expected to do. For IRIS, we focused on what’s happening to the manufacturing process. DARPA SHIELD will develop the facility to provide 100 percent assurance against certain known threat modes quickly, and at any step of the supply chain.
Semiconductor manufacturing supply chain needs to address trust and assurance challenges. We need to maintain the confidentiality of the technology delivered, protect the IP, and have continuous and sustained access to technology needed. We have challenges such as data and definitions, so that a semiconductor product can be delivered without compromise to the product’s integrity, trustworthiness, and authenticity.
For IP protection, we need to incorporate, verify, and validate an IP into design. We need to protect the logic design and simulation of the chip. We also need to be able to transmit and store the functional test programs to the wafer fab facility, and the assembly, packaging, and testing facility. We also have to do aggregation of package-level test data in the APT facility, and take that to the customer.
Model and simulate semiconductor supply chain
Eric Forsythe, Technical Director, CHIPS R&D, introduced the CHIPS Manufacturing USA. The grand challenge is to seamlessly model and simulate the entire semiconductor supply chain. We need to create an effective collaboration environment for applied industry research to bridge the gap from discovery to production.
CHIPS Manufacturing USA Institute is meeting the digital twin institute objectives. These are: reduce time and cost for chip development and manufacturing, accelerate adoption of semiconductor manufacturing initiatives, etc.
Data — reliable, secure and accessible, workforce development, and model development and validation, were the top three areas to look at. These are the big challenges for developing digital twin technologies for semiconductor manufacturing.
Electronics supply chain digital security standardization
There was a panel discussion on landscape, scope, and focus of electronics supply chain digital security standardization efforts. The participants were Gretchen Greene, NIST, Chris Ritter, Idaho National Lab, and Christophe Bégué, PDF Solutions.
Gretchen Greene, Group Leader, Data Science Group, NIST, said we are currently building trusted chip environments (TCE). We are modernizing the ecosystem and leveraging digital technology. Security and interoperability remain the main issues.
In the CHIPS supply value chain, there are design, fabrication, package, assembly, and test, and commercial sectors. These are addressed by players in muti-physics and modelling, IP, Open Source, manufacturing process and tooling, materials and resources, photonics, microelectronics, etc.
Granularity of the semiconductor supply chain is at the heart of the standards challenge. The interoperability at scale supporting coarse grain digital assets has been inconsistent, and even non-existent. We have the opportunity to impact the industry. We are opening several windows of commercial opportunity for marketplace innovation.
We are also standardizing protocols, such as information sharing, smart connections, etc. We are making protocol specs, payload types, synchronization or process flows, status, managing authorities, verification/validation and resolver services, and registry/curation for monitoring, nodes/hubs, etc.
We are also developing a knowledge network via CHIPS exchange. Semiconductor knowledge can be shared across digital assets, such as taxonomy, machine, actionable, analytics, visualization, etc.
We have goals such as federate across supply chain through use of digital architecture connecting generations, standards, TREs and stakeholders. Strengthen exchange, reuse, and interoperability. Enable discovery and access, etc.
Digital engineering mission
Chris Ritter, Idaho National Lab, said that we have the digital engineering mission. Digital engineering transforms the way we design and operate energy assets. Digital engineering is an innovator and key success driver across all initiatives. It is a key enabler for net-zero program.
With DE, we can design — it links facility information. Operations enable the digital twin. He talked about Deep Lynx, its virtual, and physical platforms. Deep Lynx open source model is a centralized digital twin data warehouse and live event system. Ontological and time series storage of digital twin data streams is there. Event system can push and pull data in real-time around a digital twin. It is proven in operation of MAGNET digital twin.
Idaho National Lab has open ontology for thread and twins. General entity model (GEM) is an extensible, upper-level ontology. It has an advanced manufacturing app. It has digital twin demonstrations across lifecycle stages.
Supply chain traceability
Christophe Bégué, PDF Solutions, said the semiconductor market is currently looking at reliability, RMA or failures in the field, security, and regulation.
Supply chain traceability can provide fast and precise analysis of a reliability or security issue. We can enable short- and long-term containment plans to reduce cost and preserve brand. We can have assurance and preferred supply through provenance and traceability.
We need standards for single device traceability. We have SEMI E142 standard that defines a data model for devices within a wafer or complex assembly. Devices have a virtual identifier (VID) based on this model. E142 forms basis for single device tracking.
We need standards for supply chain traceability. SEMI is developing Specification for Supply Chain Traceability using Distributed Ledger Technology standard proposal to record chain of custody and provenance. We also have SEMI Supply Chain Traceability using distributed ledger technology or DLT. Standard currently defines the data and transaction model, asset lifecycle, and services.
Using diamond films to enhance thermal performance in electronics packaging
IEEE Electronics Packaging Chapter, Santa Clara Valley Chapter, USA, recently organized a seminar on using diamond films to enhance thermal performance in electronics packaging.
Artificial diamond films are deposited from a mixture of methane and hydrogen — and the deposition of the material is not an expensive process. However, the integration of diamond films and electronic devices requires the development and optimization of new processing lines, which is a costly procedure. LEDs, for instance, have become low-cost components.
Dr. Joana Catarina Mendes, Researcher at the Instituto de Telecomunicações in Portugal said a diamond is metastable allotrope of carbon, where carbon atoms are arranged in a variation of the face‐centered cubic crystal structure known as diamond lattice. It has small atomic radius, extremely strong covalent bonding between sp3 hybrid orbitals, and set of extreme properties. Some properties include high hardness, high demand inertness, high young modules, high thermal conductivity, high bandgap/breakdown field, high electron mobility, and low dielectric constant.
Natural diamond forms 150-200 km inside the earth’s mantle under extreme conditions. Despite their high commercial value in jewelry, natural diamond crystals have too many defects, and cannot be used for electronic applications. Their use is typically limited to tri-bological apps.
Diamond synthesis
Artificial diamond can be formed under high pressure and high temperature (HPHT). The HPHT method reproduces diamond formation conditions inside the earth’s mantle. Diamond seeds are placed at the bottom of a press at 5 GPa. The internal part of the press is heated above 1400°C, and melts the solvent metal. The molten metal dissolves and drags atoms from high purity carbon source, which precipitate on the diamond seed.
Another method is chemical vapor deposition (CVD). CH4 and H2 are typical input gases. The input gases are dissociated and activated. The activated radicals flow and react with C atoms on a substrate. Atomic H etches away non‐sp3 C bonds. Due to their short wavelength (12 cm at 2.45 GHz) the MW power can be supplied as TEM or TM waves. Conductive plasma replaces the outer conductor of coaxial line in plasma discharge region.
Single crystal diamond (SCD) substrate leads to homoepitaxial diamond films. They have the highest thermal conductivity. They are ideal for electronic devices and thermal management apps. Non‐diamond substrate leads to heteroepitaxial/polycrystalline diamond films (PCD). Here, different substrates are possible, such as Si, SiC, GaN, etc.
Diamond films enhance thermal performance in electronics packaging
We can use diamond films to enhance thermal performance in electronics packaging. We can start by integrating diamond and GaN high-electron-mobility transistors (HEMTs). In some cases, the amount of heat generated per unit volume is comparable in magnitude to that encountered at nuclear reactors and at the surface of the sun! We need to cool down the hotspot. We can also grow diamond on the back of GaN wafer.
Next, we have capping diamond, where, films are deposited at 700°C. Metal heat spreaders transfer the heat to the underlying HEMT holder. Thermal resistance is reduced by ≈ 40 percent, and junction temperature is lowered by 100°C @ 25 W/mm. 4’’ GaN‐on‐diamond wafer volume manufacturing was achieved in 2021. Radios and power amplifier modules are available for satellite apps.
Diamond substrate needs GaN/diamond wafer bonding. We can do thermocompression using adhesive layer, as well. We can also do surface-activated bonding (SAB). Another method is Van der Waals (VdW) bonding. The process was initially employed for GaAs thin films.
Other uses
Diamond can be used as chip‐carrier of power LEDs. We can also have diamond carriers for high power LED dice. Diamond can also be used as power board. Depending on the activation energy of the aging processes, LEDs mounted on diamond board will age 60-90 percent slower @350 mA and 90-99 percent @700 mA.
Conclusion
Diamond has been successfully used to improve the thermal management of different devices.
For GaN HEMTs, we have diamond‐capping of passivated HEMTs, direct growth of diamond on back of GaN wafers, bonding of GaN wafers/HEMTs and diamond substrates, commercial GaN‐on‐diamond‐based RF power amplifiers are available for satellite communications. Companies such as Mitsubishi Electric Corp. and Fujitsu are involved in research.
Diamond as chip‐carrier has similar impact of PCD and SCD carriers on LED characteristics. It improves stability of the wavelength with the current, and increases LED lifetime significantly. Diamond as power board increases LED lifetime considerably, when compared to standard MCPCBs. The results can be extrapolated to other devices.
Why is India the next manufacturing hub?
Supply Chain Resources Group (SCRG), USA, organized a webinar today on: Why India is the next manufacturing hub?
The participants were Saurine Doshi, AT Kearney, Arun Kumar, Celesta Capital, and Mahesh Krishnamurti, SCRG. SCOOP founder, Philip Stoten, was the moderator.
So, what makes India the next manufacturing destination? And, why now? Kumar, Celesta, said there is a global value chain and dangers of concentration. Second, we have the geopolitical situation. Third, rise of local presence.
There is hyper-specialization of manufacturing landscape, driven by globalization. About 25+ percent of manufacturing is located in China. There is now a concentration risk. Pandemic was a wake up call. The world now needs multiple sources of supply. China was also becoming a geopolitical risk, globally. People started looking at services beyond China. Companies in the regional supply chains also started improving. India scores quite well, and is trusted by lot of countries. Manufacturers are seeking other locations. China also does not want to play in the low end.
India now has a great opportunity. Medium tech sector is showing promise. GoI is also pushing to move to the hi-tech intensive end. RSAP is dominated by China. India is now beginning to have free trade deals with Europe, Australia, etc. India’s import tariffs are also quite high among emerging markets. With GST, we are having a one, common market. India has also handed strong incentives, starting from the Covid-19 period. India’s digital public infrastructure has also developed.
Doshi, Kearney, added that we have seen the CHIPS Act in USA has seen bringing back leading-node chips to the USA. There are opportunities in lagging node technology. India has the advantage. Tata has signed a tech license with Powerchip, Taiwan. The environment in India is getting better. We will see green shoots around them.
Krishnamurti, SCRG, noted that India is well-positioned to becoming a major port maritime shipping hub. India also has got the global trust back. Around 1.4 billion people represents a very large market. There is significant demand for smartphones, and India is also the second-largest maker. There is a huge demand for automobiles. We also have edutech, healthcare, etc., that provides a huge demand. It has a growing appetite.
Doshi, Kearney, said 10 years ago, exports was the primary focus. Krishnamurti said India has passed through the pandemic, and had the need for advanced electronics. There is a much larger middle class coming up in India.
What will be the impact of elections that could see some slowdown? Doshi, Kearney, said we should be concerned more about manufacturing. Things should continue as usual, in India. Kumar agreed, adding there is an interesting legislation on labor laws. Momentum will be maintained, irrespective of the results. Krishnamurti added that continuity is very important for the supply chain. The economic growth train has already left the station.
Key areas for electronics manufacturing
Where should India be thinking in terms of the geography? What are the key areas for electronics manufacturing? Kumar, Celesta said that India is spreading out electronics manufacturing. We have units coming up in Assam and Gujarat. Tamil Nadu has emerged as a hub. Bangalore, Hyderabad, Baroda, Ahmedabad, etc., have also come up. We are also looking at the talent resource. Clusters can be used by talent. We already have about 1600 GCCs in India. It all depends on the sector.
Doshi, Kearney, added that MNCs are going to Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, etc. All state governments are keen on developing and getting business. Memory, storage, semiconductors, etc., can be part of that. The USA is trying to set up an ecosystem. India can also do that via special economic zones (SEZs). We will be getting the ecosystem of products very soon. Semiconductors and memory requires special skills, and there will be lot to learn. We also have some JVs coming up.
There are supply chain ecosystem issues as well. Regions in Guadalajara, Mexico, is one such example. What’s happening in India? Krishnamurti noted that the Government and states are providing sufficient incentives. Micron is now in India. Tata is starting a fab in India with Powerchip. We are also seeing ATMP and OSAT facilities coming up. These will create ecosystems across the chain, including water supply, electricity, etc. Mumbai, Gujarat in the west, and east zones, are being developed. We need to make this pan-India, and achieve equilibrium and balance. Collaboration between the academia and corporations is also very important for talent.
Regarding talent, Kumar, Celesta, said there are elite institutes across India. Companies are also investing in them. We need to ensure quality education is maintained across schools. It is not yet a situation like China. We need to improve this further. China knows how to set up manufacturing at scale. India is not there yet. We also have many job seekers. We need better education and job development.
Doshi, Kearney, added that roads, railways, road and water transport have all improved across India. It needs more SEZs across the states. He noted PSMC signed a licensing agreement with Tata. Incentives are also there. We can say India is set to scale up from infrastructure, talent, perspectives, etc. India has the dominance here, and it will change in future.
Achieving in India
India also has the size in terms of talent, size, etc. Infrastructure has allowed China to stay there. They still have a domestic market to retain large footprint. Regarding how easy it is to enter India as a foreign OEM, Krishnamurti said there are JVs happening, with contract manufacturers, as well. Diversity of India is very huge. There can also be chaos in India, as sometimes, there are both carts and cars on the road.
People should first understand what they are looking to achieve in India. We have to look at products and services, and their needs. We can align those with specific sectors. We need to do good due diligence. There are many organizations who have partners on the ground. They can always relay feedback
Doshi, Kearney, added that when customers make a mental leap, there is still a challenge at which things are done. It is becoming faster. We also need to have sense of when things can go live, and can they be relied upon. Stability is also a big issue. More companies feel that it is becoming good. We will also gain in speed over time.
Kumar, Celesta, said there are large companies with alternative sources for manufacturing. If a sector is aligned with the government, it can speed up things, look at tariffs, etc. They can also sit down and help, if required. It is becoming easier to do business. Krishnamurti added that things are improving, We are highly cognizant of the potential. Invest India is helping folks come and manufacture in India. We have the experience and speed.
Finally, what will happen in the short term? Kumar said we are in the early stages right now. Global manufacturing opportunities are enormous. It is going to speed up. Doshi said it may take 5 years to scale up. We also need to factor in the importance of global and local markets. Krishnamurti said the intent is there. There is no turning back. We will see demand for electronics and semiconductors grow. The flywheel is now moving.
Accelerated computing has reached tipping point: Jensen Huang, Nvidia
Jensen Huang, Nvidia CEO, presented the GTC 2024 keynote in San Jose, USA. He said that technology leaders are sitting here, heading companies that accelerate computing. $100 trillion of the global industry is represented here today.
CUDA has turned out to be a revolutionary model from Nvidia in 2006. In 2012, Alexnet happened. AI and CUDA made first contact in 2016, recognizing the importance of DGX1, with 170TP in the world’s first supercomputer.
In 2023, GenAI emerged, and a new industry begins. Software had never existed before, and it is a new category. We are now creating new type of tokens creating AI factories to generate new AI. A new industry has now emerged. We will discuss how we are going to do computing next. We will talk about new software, and apps, and how can we start preparing for what’s coming next!
Nvidia is at the intersection of computer graphics, physics, and AI — all intersecting inside a computer in omniverse, in virtual world simulation. Accelerated computing has reached the tipping point. The impact is dramatic, especially in our own. We are driving up the scale. We need to accelerate an entire industry, and bring the world into accelerated computing.
Talk about partnerships
Nvidia is partnering with Ansys, to accelerate their ecosystem. The apps they accelerate will have a major impact. The end users will have the most amazing apps, and system makers and CSTs would also benefit. We are also partnering with Synopsys. They have revolutionized the chip industry. Nvidia has created a library that accelerates computational lithography.
Nvidia also announced that TSMC and Synopsys are going into production with its computational lithography platform to accelerate manufacturing, and push limits of physics for the next generation of advanced semiconductor chips.
“Computational lithography is a cornerstone of chip manufacturing,” said Huang. “Our work on cuLitho, in partnership with TSMC and Synopsys, applies accelerated computing and generative AI to open new frontiers for semiconductor scaling.” Nvidia also introduced new generative AI algorithms that enhance the cuLitho, a library for GPU-accelerated computational lithography, dramatically improving semiconductor manufacturing process over current CPU-based methods.
“Our work with Nvidia to integrate GPU-accelerated computing in the TSMC workflow has resulted in great leaps in performance, dramatic throughput improvement, shortened cycle time and reduced power requirements,” said Dr. C.C. Wei, CEO of TSMC. “We are moving Nvidia cuLitho into production at TSMC, leveraging this computational lithography technology to drive a critical component of semiconductor scaling.”
“For more than two decades, Synopsys Proteus mask synthesis software products have been the production-proven choice for accelerating computational lithography — the most demanding workload in semiconductor manufacturing,” said Sassine Ghazi, President and CEO of Synopsys. “With the move to advanced nodes, computational lithography has dramatically increased in complexity and compute cost. Our collaboration with TSMC and Nvidia is critical to enabling angstrom-level scaling, as we pioneer advanced technologies to reduce turnaround time by orders of magnitude through the power of accelerated computing.”
Huang added that Nvidia is also partnering with Cadence Design Systems. To realize the benefits of GenAI, our society depends on use of the world’s data centers. To mitigate the potential impact of these on the environment, it is critical to more efficiently design, optimize, and manage them. Nvidia and Cadence have partnered, using Cadence Reality Digital Twin platform and Nvidia Omniverse to accomplish, and deliver success in AI era.
He said that we are also building supercomputers. In the future, companies like Cadence, Ansys, etc., will offer you AI co-pilots. We can create a future in digital twins. LLMs have benefitted mostly. We have now grown computational requirements quite a lot. We are also going to need much bigger GPUs.
Blackwell is here, along with Hopper!
In 2021, we built Selene supercomputer with 4,480 A100 GPUs. In 2023, we built the EOS, with 10,752 H100 GPUs. We now need even larger models. They need to be grounded in physics. We need even bigger GPUs in the future. He introduced a very big GPU, named after mathematician, David Blackwell. Blackwell GPU. He showed the Blackwell and Hopper GPUs. Hopper securely scales diverse workloads in every data center, from small enterprise to exascale high-performance computing (HPC) and trillion-parameter AI—so that brilliant innovators can fulfil their life’s work at the fastest pace in human history.
Blackwell platform is for trillion-parameter scale GenAI. Its partner, TSMC, will use 4NP in production. The GPU architecture has six transformative technologies for accelerated computing, help unlock breakthroughs in data processing, engineering simulation, EDA, computer-aided drug design, quantum computing and GenAI — all emerging industry opportunities for Nvidia. Among the many organizations expected to adopt Blackwell are Amazon Web Services, Dell Technologies, Google, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, Oracle, Tesla and xAI.
GPUs are also able to do mathematics right in the network. We also need to have the ability to detect a weak chip and swap with another. We also have the ability for encrypting data at rest, and in transit. While, its being computed, it is all encrypted. It is in trusted engine environment. We also handle decompression. All these capabilities keep Blackwell as busy as possible. Remember, a GPU is making tokens. Some call it inference, but it is appropriately generating the way computing is done. The future is generative! The way we compute is fundamentally different. He also announced Project Groot. This includes a new computer based on Blackwell. Project Groot will be available to humanoid robot makers.
DGX is bigger GPU
Nvidia now wants to have a bigger GPU. Therefore, we decided to scale, and improved computation by 8x times. In the last eight years, we have gone 1,000 times, and we have two years still to go. We have built another chip — NVLink Switch chip. It has 50 billion transistors, and almost the size of Hopper. It has four MV links, each, 1.8Tbps. We can have every single GPU talk to every other GPU at full speed, at same time.
We also have DGX GB200 NVL72 GPU. Huang had delivered the first DGX chip to OpenAI, which was 170 teraflops. This GPU is now 720 teraflops! We have the world’s first exascale machine in one rack. This is an exaflop AI system in one single rack. It connects 36 Grace CPUs and 72 Blackwell GPUs in a rack-scale design. GB200 NVL72 is a liquid-cooled, rack-scale solution that boasts a 72-GPU NVLink domain. This acts as a single massive GPU, and delivers 30X faster real-time for trillion-parameter LLM inference.
Our goal is to continuously drive down cost, and energy so they are directly proportional to each other’s cost and energy for computing. We can continue to expand and scale up the computation.
How key are photonics for quantum computers?
European Photonics Industry Consortium (EPIC) organized a conference on photonics for quantum computers.
Interplay between photonics and quantum was discussed, along with the role of photonics in quantum computing. It focused on new developments, such as programmable PICs, single photon detectors, manipulation of single photons or co-packaging.
Ivan Nikitski, Photonics Technology Manager, EPIC, welcomed the audience.
Photonics as KET for quantum computing
Johan Boullet, R&D Engineer, Institut d’Optique Graduate School, France, talked about photonics as KET for quantum computing. Optics and photonics are a core enabling element of quantum technologies, as many systems require very precise control of light.
Quantum presents various innovation opportunities the optics and photonics communities. There is large ecosystem of component, system, and service players, having the various requirements for their respective architectures.
There are classes of problems that are exponentially difficult to deal with, depending on the number of particles with a classical computer, but, which can be solved in polynomial time with a quantum computer.
For example, Shor factorization algorithm and Deutsch-Jozsa algorithm. It has considerable applications in materials science and condensed matter, chemistry, protected communications, etc. Power of quantum computer comes from entanglement, but its weakness comes from the fragility of super-positions of states with N particles.
He provided examples of quantum computing with atoms and ions. Laser quality and performance are very important. Wavelength is related to atomic transition used. LiNbO3 modulators and special fibers are used.
Quantum communications leverages the properties of quantum state preparation and measurement as well as intrinsic quantum phenomena such as entanglement and squeezing to create secure communications networks. The road to quantum computers also involves overcoming propagation losses. There are two approaches — intermediate trusted nodes, and intermediate untrusted quantum relays.
Recommendations for strengthening QT market, include Europe not having fundamental lack of supply. Europe is home for best-suited laser sources and photonics systems for QT. It serves 60-80 percent of the current global market demand for quantum.
There can be a fundamental discrepancy between the expectation of the not-laser savvy quantum customers, and their SWaPc requirements on one side, and the existing photonics companies in the field on the other side. There is lack of realism on market size as far as transition effort to bridge such discrepancy is concerned. We are mastering the demand in small volume today by testing the quality in limited series. We need a consistent long-term market in non-European markets, that we cannot address due to understandable European sovereignty concerns. Capital investment is needed. As are Government / European contracts.
Stefan Spaelter, Director Product Management Quantum Technologies, Toptica Photonics AG, Germany, spoke on evolving laser system solutions for quantum computing.
The company offers diode laser systems, ultrafast ps/fs fiber lasers, optical frequency combs, CW fiber lasers and amplifiers, high-power laser diodes, and terahertz generation. Toptica also offers laser solutions for ion and neutral atom qubit systems.
High-energy efficiency fiber array-to-chip coupling
Core-based fiber array alignment for high-energy efficiency fiber array-to-chip coupling was presented by Simone Cardarelli, CEO, MicroAlign, The Netherlands. It is a spin-off of the Eindhoven University of Technology.
There is bottleneck in fiber array alignment. Optical fibers need to be positioned at <0.1μm accuracy. This is a key problem for quantum photonics computers. The industry needs <0.1μm fiber array accuracy, leading to <0.1 percent misalignment loss. Here, high accuracy fiber arrays are required. MicroAlign has development roadmap for 2024-2025. It involves 250μm pitch 12f-fiber array, with pitch accuracy ±0.1 μm. Then, 250μm pitch 24f-fiber array, with pitch accuracy ±0.05 μm. And, 127μm pitch 24f-fiber array, with ±0.05μm pitch accuracy.
Sara Pourjamal, Research Scientist, VTT, Finland, spoke about photonics for quantum technologies. VTT offers SiPh platforms for quantum technology. Its SiN platform offers integrated temperature sensor on chip, and wafer scale graphene PD integration on SiN platform.
VTT offers ultra-low-loss thick SoI platform. Passive and active photonic ICs (PICs) are in 3μm thick silicon-on-insulator (SoI). It also has Ge photodiode for QKD, integrated CV-QKD recievers, and superconducting nanaowire single photon detector (SNSPD). For material development, it has NbN SNSPD, MoSi SNSPD, and is developing wafer-scale process for thin amorphous MoSi films.
VTT’s Qu-Pilot will launch an open call for industry use cases and SMEs in 2024. Call text and criteria will be announced in June 2024. Call closure is in Sept./Oct. 2024. A fund of ~€150,000 per use case is needed.
Photonics enabling QC
Dr. Eric Mounier, Chief Analyst, Yole Group, presented on photonics as an enabling technology for quantum computing. There are different kinds of QCs. Today, we have quantum annealers and quantum emulators. In 5-10 years, we will have NISQ, with Pasqal a key player. It will be having few 100s physical qubits. It is better performing than HPC, but still limited by noise. It uses qubits and quantum gates, with no error correction. 10-5 to 10-6 ER is required. In future, we will move to fault-tolerant QC (FTQC).
He provided an update on quantum technologies forecast. In 2022, the market was $761 million. It is expected to rise to $1.1 billion by 2025, and to $2.13 billion by 2030. Looking at the QC supply chain pyramid, the quantum hardware layer estimated 2022 market value is $200-250 million. Quantum computers layer estimated 2022 market value is $65 million. Software and applications layer estimated 2022 market value is $50-100 million. Services and end users layers make up estimated 2022 market value of $46 million. Currently, it is more of a collaborative mesh, than an industrial value chain.
Talking about qubits benchmark, there is currently no one ideal unique qubit solution. Ratio coherence time/gate time gives the maximum number of operations that can be done (for single qubit).
Trapped ions have the advantage here. In terms of qubits number, Atom Computing announced end 2023 a QPU with more than 1,000 qubits. Further, wafer-scale approaches (Si, SiGe, SiN PICs) give highest scalability with spin QD being advantageous because of their small size.
We are seeing a need for silicon photonics for quantum computing. Photons have an advantage in terms of handling, as they operate at room temperature. Chip design and manufacturing can leverage Si technology. Challenges are in the development of single photon sources and detectors, as well as controlling multi-photon interaction.
Photonics qubits provide stability, ambient temperature operation, availability of unique photon sources / detectors, and photons are already used in telecom and datacom. Si photonics platform leverages wafer-scale CMOS manufacturing platform, is a proven product success and maturity, with existing industrial foundry infrastructure. It has optical processors in R&D.
GBIP looking to expand semiconductor collaborations with Taiwan
Global Business Innovation Program, UK, organized a semiconductors event with ITRI, Taiwan.
David Campbell Molloy, Partnership Manager Asia, Innovate UK, presented the Global Missions Program. Innovation is the key to UK’s future growth and prosperity. Talking about Innovate UK and EPSRC within UKRI, it is the UK’s Research & Innovation agency. It is a key delivery body of HMG’s R&I policies and strategies. We support academic research and business.
Innovate UK mission is to help UK businesses grow through the development and commercialization of new products, processes, and services, supported by an outstanding innovation ecosystem that is agile, inclusive, and easy to navigate. Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) mission is to support new ideas and transformative technologies that are foundations of innovations that improve our economy, environment and society, by investing in world-leading research and skills.
Innovate UK global programs to support businesses include Global Scoping Workshops, Global Expert Missions, Global Explorers, Global Business Innovation Programs, Global Incubator Programs, and Bilateral and multilateral R&D&I funding programs and access to Horizon Europe.
In Nov. 2022, a five-year MoU was signed between Innovate UK and the Department of Industrial Technology, Ministry of Economic Affairs, Taiwan, with commitment to strengthening joint R&D opportunities. Industrial Technology Research Institute or ITRI is the main delivery partner.
UK global business innovation
Louise Hooker, GBIP Program Lead, Innovate UK Business Growth, presented Global Business Innovation Program. Innovate UK is fully-funded competitive program delivered by IUK Business Growth. A national team of circa 270 innovation and growth specialist advisers provide specialist, tailored business support to help ambitious companies commercialize new products and services, and accelerate business growth
In the past 5 years, the program has supported +2,200 companies in key technology sectors to access markets of strategic importance. Significant focus is on Asian markets, notably Singapore, South Korea, and Japan. Taiwan has emerged in the last few years as a market of significant strategic importance. Like Singapore and South Korea, it has the benefit of bilateral funding from Innovate UK and ITRI.
A three-phase program aims to build capability, capacity, and drive collaboration. It is aimed at the most globally ambitious innovation- and technology-led companies with the greatest potential to scale internationally.
Clair Hsin-Fang Lee, Senior Business Manager/Europe Business Division, Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI), gave an overview of Taiwan’s semiconductor ecosystem.
Introduction to Taiwan
Guy Robertson, Science and Innovation Network, British Office Taipei, gave an introduction to Taiwan. The British Office represents UK interests in Taiwan. UK and Taiwan enjoy a vibrant relationship in trade, science, culture, and education. SIN (the Science and Innovation Network) is here to improve links between researchers and early-stage start-ups in the UK and Taiwan.
SIN provides support for two key programs: UK-Taiwan Innovative Industries Program (I2P), a researcher placement program, and UK-Taiwan Collaborative R&D program (2nd call for proposals will be April 24).
Taiwan is a stable, vibrant democracy with a free press and independent judiciary. It holds presidential and legislative elections every four years, with one having just occurred earlier this year. It has a population of 23.6 million, with good transport, industry, and utility infrastructure on the North and West coasts.
Traditionally, China and US have been Taiwan’s two key markets, with 35 percent and 17 percent of exports share, respectively. Export dynamics are changing with the increasing emphasis on India and South-East Asia. Taiwan’s GDP per capita is $72,485, the 12th richest globally, and higher than Germany, France and Japan.
Taiwan has science and innovation strengths. These are 3.96 percent R&D investment as percentage of GDP (UK 2.9 percent). It ranks third in patents per capita, behind US and Japan. It ranks fourth in WEF Innovation Capability Index ranking (UK #8). About 262,000 are employed in R&D (251,000 in the UK). 25 percent of all degrees are engineering-related.
Taiwan is very famous for semiconductors, and is also dominant in contract manufacturing for the electronics industry. It has a 5+2 industrial policy focusing on Asian Silicon Valley, smart machinery, national defense, green energy, AI/cyber security + new agricultural industry and zero emissions.
Focus areas and opportunities
Iain Mauchline, Electronics, Sensors & Photonics Lead, Innovate UK, presented on the focus areas and opportunities. Talking about UK semiconductor strategy, semiconductors are 1 of the 5 technologies of tomorrow. They are critical to the UK’s economic and national security, and to strategic advantage that the UK will secure on the global stage.
Over the next 20 years, UK will secure areas of world leading semiconductor technologies of future by focusing on strengths in R&D, design and IP, and compound semiconductors. All of this will facilitate technological innovation, boost growth, and bolster international position to improve supply chain resilience. The UK government plans to invest up to £1 billion over the next decade.
In the recent Autumn statement, the Chancellor has clarified the government’s priorities for the UK Infrastructure Bank, to ensure it is able to invest in critical supply chains where it meets the Bank’s strategic objectives, including semiconductor manufacturing and critical minerals.
Regarding UK’s semiconductor strategy, UKSII Feasibility Study has results due in early 2024. The DSIT-commissioned study is to understand the technical and economic feasibility of developing specific capabilities to support commercial R&D, grow UK semiconductor sector, and contribute to supply chain resilience. It has five key capabilities under evaluation:
- Silicon prototyping and low volume piloting.
- Advanced packaging.
- Compound semiconductor open-access foundry.
- Access to EDA tools and design IP.
- An institutional framework that would provide strategic coordination for the sector.
Semiconductor Advisory Panel was established by DSIT to enable the government to work closely with industry to deliver the goals of the National Semiconductor Strategy on growing the UK sector, ensuring a stable supply of chips, and protecting the UK from national security risks associated with semiconductor technology.
ChipStart is a two-year pilot program backed by the UK government that will provide early-stage companies involved in design of semiconductors the technical and commercial help they need to help bring new products to market – and ultimately, improve lives and livelihoods in the long-term.
Semiconductor strengths
UK has several semiconductor strengths. In semiconductor design/IP, there are over 100 semiconductor design/IP companies. Global companies are also in IP, AI, SoCs, graphics, IoT, etc. It has a world leading chip-design sector with clusters, including those in Bristol, Cambridge, and Edinburgh.
In compound and novel material semiconductors, UK has 8 percent share of the global compound semiconductor market. It has a compound semiconductor cluster, CSconnected, in South Wales. World-leading companies are working with advanced materials. Research strengths of the UK includes photonics / photonic systems integration, integrated circuit design, compound semiconductors, embedded security, on chip, polymer electronic materials. and new and advanced materials for devices (spintronics, magnonics, etc.).
Semiconductor-related investments
Semiconductor-related investments by Innovate UK have been many. Digital Security by Design (DSbD) is worth £80 million. It is transforming technology to create more resilient and secure foundation for a safer digital future.
Driving the Electric Revolution (DER) is worth £80 million. It is looking at electrification technologies, including power electronics, machines and drives (PEMD), developing clean technology supply chains. Next comes commercializing quantum technologies worth £174 million. We are advancing commercialization of new products and technologies based on advances in quantum science.
Robots for Safer World is worth £112 million. We are advancing robotics and autonomous systems in extreme and challenging environments. Manufacturing and Skills Innovation projects is worth £18 million. We are supporting skills development and manufacturing scale up for the semiconductors industry. Lastly, compound semiconductor app catapult worth £80+ million. We are helping the UK companies exploit advances in compound semiconductor technologies.
UK-Taiwan collaboration
There are several opportunities for UK-Taiwan collaboration. Due to global nature of the supply chain, the UK understands need for international co-operation, and identified synergies and opportunities offered by collaborating more closely with Taiwan.
UK is a world leader in new and emerging semiconductor materials, design/IP, hardware security and research. Taiwan has a well-established semiconductor ecosystem with a vast network of suppliers and vendors, and benefits from manufacturing infrastructure that is needed to support a resilient supply chain.
Taiwan is also targeting increased development of novel materials and technologies, which align well with the UK’s areas of expertise, such as those in IC design, power electronics, silicon photonics, and future telecoms.
Collaborative efforts have been initiated via agreements between Innovate UK and Taiwan Department of Industrial Trade, and joint funding of R&D projects between ITRI and Innovate UK. It has been further supported by agreements between ITRI and CSAC.
During last year’s GBIP, exciting opportunities were identified in quantum, WBG power electronics, and photonics across the supply chain, i.e., government agencies (e.g., ITRI) universities (e.g., NYCU), Incubators/accelerators (e.g., TTU), and companies and trade organization (e.g., PIDA).
Louise Hooker, GBIP Program Lead , Innovate UK Business Growth, presented on the application and selection process. The application deadline is 22 March 2024. Innovation visits to Taiwan are on 31 May-8 June 2024, and on Sept. 1-7, 2024. An Exploitation Workshop will be in Birmingham, on Oct. 15, 2024.
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